Houston is just a bit over valued here, and on the road (again) after playing the Chiefs in what was a tough/emotional game. Now they face a rested (bye week) Colts team in a division matchup. Last year both games between these two were decided by three points. The difference-maker here for me is that Brissett has only been sacked 6 times this season to 18 for Watson (yes I know they've played an extra game). Houston CAN get after the QB, but Brissett is mobile and Houston's rush defense (YPP) isn't that good. So, the Colts should be able to run the ball, and keep Watson off the field. I don't TRUST Watson. The Colts MAY get Parris Cambell back, and they did get Hilton back right before the bye. The Colts are now the listed favorites, slightly, and they're actually on an 11-2 run as faves. Houston is only 8-11 SU in road games the last three years, and under .500 against division opponents in that same span. The Colts ALSO look as if they're getting Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers back on defense, which ALSO helps our cause. Just needing a home team to win a division game against a team that's not rested and on the road for the second straight week is too much to pass up, especially with the Colts getting healthy.

10/17/2019 10:16 AM