The Broncos go into their week two game with one of the best applicable trends in the NFL. Since 2000, the Broncos are 22-1 SU at home in the first two weeks of the season. The altitude factor early in the season is the logic behind the trend. Teams are just not in the proper game shape necessary to handle the fatigue factor. The Bears especially have not had much playing time, as they had starters sit out for the entire preseason. 

Vic Fangio should know this Chicago offense better than anyone. Since most of what Mitchell Trubisky does is scheme related, he should be able to shut him down. Trubisky averaged 5.1 YPA and didn’t lead a touchdown drive against Green Bay. Lots of NFL films analyst have said Trubisky can’t throw to his left. If anyone knows how to defend Trubisky and expose his weaknesses, it’s Fangio. 

The Broncos did not look good against the Raiders on MNF, but that was on the road. During a terrible season last year for the Broncos, they were very competitive at home, especially against playoff teams. At home they lost to the Chiefs by 4, the Rams by 3, and the Texans by 2. They beat above average teams like the Steelers and Seahawks. The Bears struggled on the road last year, narrowly beating bottom dweller teams like the 49ers, Cardinals, and Lions. They lost to the Giants and Dolphins on the road last season. I made the game Bears -1.5. 

With this number at 3, we are getting clear value on a key number for the Broncos.