2** JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS plus the points versus Houston Texans / #273 / 1:00pm ET

Last week, we grabbed the points with HOUSTON in their opening game versus the Saints. The ATS margin was never in doubt as the Texans went up 7-0, and had leads of 14-3 and 21-10 in the game. they eventually lost the game… but they DID get the cash. This week we’re FADING the Texans, on a short week… after getting beat up pretty bad… and in a dangerous significant line move situation. In a two-week period, they go from BIG dogs to BIG favorites. And that extreme line move is historically a profitable ‘Play Against’ situation….

But first, we ran a query for the most profitable situation to play on a DOG in the second week of the season. We touched on this topic in this week’s Marc Lawrence AGAINST THE SPREAD podcast. Bring in two teams off a Week One loss, and the DOG is the play. 33-9-2 ATS All-Time in our database: All GAME TWO underdogs off a double-digit SU loss (JAGS lost 40-26 last week), versus any opponent off a SU loss (Texans). These doggies improve to a sparkling 20-4-1 ATS off a Week One NON-division game (like the JAGS)… and a perfect 8-0-1 ATS if playing a division opponent in Game Two….

Both teams allowed a lot of points in their Week One losses. 5-18 ATS last four years: All home favorites of > 3 points (Texans) when BOTH teams allowed 30+ points in their last game…. 

With Houston off a Prime-Time game (on short rest), we note that In the last four years, NFL home favorites of > 3 points off a MONDAY night non-division road loss (Texans) have gone 1-8-1 ATS….

Jacksonville has a Prime-Time game of their own next week, as they will be hosting division rival Tennessee next Thursday. 9-0 Ays last 5 years: All GAME 2 or greater road underdogs BEFORE playing a THURSDAY division home game (JAGUARS)….

We also ran a couple of queries based on each team’s OPPONENT in their last game… (1) 9-1 ATS last 4 years: All NFL road teams off a SU home loss vs there KC Chiefs (JAGUARS)…. (2) 3-13 ATS last 3 years: All non-NFC SOUTH division teams AFTER a road game versus the New Orleans Saints (Texans). This improves to 1-8 ATS in same-division play….

Houston was a sizable road DOG last week, and now is a sizable home FAV. So here’s our query when the line changes dramatically in a two-week period: 17-37-2 ATS since 2004: All NFL big favorites of -6 or more points AFTER a game in which they were a big underdog of +6 or more points (Texans). Last season, these teams went a PERFECT 0-5 ATS!….

Houston hasn’t been a profitable ‘Big Chalk’ team in a long time. The TEXANS are a perfect 0-5 ATS as big favs of -8 or more points in the last six seasons….