SUN / Sept. 15th / 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #275-276
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Get your play in ASAP. After hovering in the range of 46-46.5 points all week line, the OU Line in this SEAHAWKS / STEELERS game is about to make the move to the KEY numbers of 47 and 48 points. Yes, we project a final score of about 30 to 24 in this one. But we STILL want to be able to cash a ‘W’ if it finishes right on 47 or 48….
It’s a long cross-country trip for the traveling Seahawks, and an EARLY ‘body clock’ start time of 10:00AM. So you know that that means: We go BACK to our WEST to EAST Time Zone ‘set’ from the trusted NFL database. NFL Western Time Zone ROAD DOGS of > 1 point (SEATTLE), playing a Sunday EARLY kickoff game (1:00pm ET) against a Eastern Time Zone opponent (PITTSBURGH) have gone 19-5 O/U in the last five years when the OU line is 45 or more points.…
Seattle was a big home favorite last week versus the Bengals, and BAREKY got the win (21-20). 7-0 O/U since 2014: All non-division teams off a SU win of 3 < pts in a game in which they were BIG home favs of -9 > pts (SEAHAWKS), when the OU line is in the range of < 38 and < 54 points….
Meanwhile, the Steelers got bitch-slapped last week on the road against rival New England (33-3). 9-1 O/U since 2014: All NFL home teams off a SU road loss of 17 or more points against the NEW ENGLAND Patriots (PITTSBURGH).…
This’ll be the 2nd straight non-conference game in a row for Seattle. 12-0 O/IU last 2 years: All NFC Conference ROAD teams, playing the 2nd of back-to-back NON-CONFERENCE games (SEAHAWKS)….
We are certainly aware that both teams went UNDER the Total in last week’s Game One action. That actually sets up a great Play ON situation this week. 10-1 O/U since 2009: All NFL Game Two home favorites of -6 < pts when BOTH teams (STEELERS + SEAHAWKS) went Under the Total in Week One, when the OU line is > 38 points….
Check out this week’s Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET newsletter to get a little more insight in regards to this game (Tuco’s Team Total of the Week). Based on the pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is Pittsburgh 25 - Seattle 21.5. We all know that Pittsburgh has EXTREME home and away ‘splits’ when it comes to their offense. At HOME in the last 5 seasons: 30.0 ppg (2018), 29.8, 28.4, 30.6, and 30.1. That’s a strong and CONSISTENT average of 29.8 ppg. Our database also tells us that NFL home teams have averaged 32.4 ppg AFTER playing a road game vs the New England Patriots. And with that BIG loss vs the Pats, we note that: NFL favs of -3 > pts have averaged 32.1 PPG (L5Y) off a big loss of 28 or more pts. For the traveling Seahawks, we note that SEATTLE has allowed 28.3 ppg on defense as non-conference road DOGS in the last 5 years. With a SLIM win over Cincy last week (21-20), we’ll close our querying with this: Last season, NFL teams allowed 27.9 ppg off a SU win BUT an ATS loss. To top it all off, Seattle’s BEST ‘Over’ results occur when they are catching points (as in underdog). They’re on a current 8-2 O/U run in their last ten games, including a perfect 4-0 O/U as underdogs (59.8 ppg). Seattle has SCORED 22 or more points in 10 out of their last 12 DOG roles… including an average of 27.7 last season. Pittsburgh’s best ‘Over’ numbers have ALWATS been at home as a short-to-mid favorite. The STEELERS have gone 18-5-1 O/U since 2013 as home favorites of LESS than (<) 7 points. That includes 9-1 O/U in the last two seasons!