Do you believe the Packers will finish this season with a winning record? I do, and that makes these next trends relevant. Since 2016, The Vikings are 0-10-1 SUATS outdoors on the road against a team that finished the season with a winning record. And in Kirk Cousins career, he is only 5-25 SU against a team with a winning record (1-6 SU last year).
I have these teams rated equally on a neutral field, but Green Bay gets one of the bigger boosts for home field advantage in the NFL, while Minnesota gets a downgrade on the road (especially on grass). Kirk Cousins is 13-23-2 SU on the road in his career. That gives me the line of Green Bay -3.5 in this spot. Note that the Packers also have extra rest going into this game as they played Thursday against the Bears.
Since 2008 when Aaron Rodgers became the Packers starting quarterback, the Packers are 53-37-4 ATS at home. The Vikings want to be a run heavy offense, but Green Bay has a solid run stopping defense, which finished 13th in opponents YPC last season and held the Bears ground game to 3.1 YPC in their season opener. The Vikings below average offensive line does not travel well.