I think there will be a NFC Championship Game hangover for New Orleans who lost in controversial fashion to the L.A. Rams. A lot of the focus all off-season has been on that missed call and it could be something similar to the Super Bowl loser hangover effect. We certainly
saw some hangover last year with the Saints early in the season (loss to Minnesota on a Hail Mary prior year). New Orleans
lost at home to Tampa Bay as a 10-point home favorite in the operner and then nearly
lost to Cleveland as a 9.5-point home favorite in Week 2. New Orleans has been known as a slow starter. In the last 5 years, the Saints are 1-9 SU/ATS (-8.5 ppg) in Games 1-2. I also have to question whether or not Drew Brees' career deterioration started at the end of last year. In the first 10 games of last season, Brees had 7 games with a QBR of 90 or higher. However, in his last 7 games, he didn't top 90 in any game.
Brad Powers' Top 5 NFL Season Win Total/Division Bets
1. Pittsburgh to win AFC North (+175 at CG Technology)
I'm not sold on the Browns who haven’t won a division title since 1989. I feel Baltimore might take a step back this year with teams having a full year to dissect QB Lamar Jackson’s tape and the Bengals are now dealing with an injury to WR AJ Green to start the season. That leaves us with the Steelers who should be plenty motivated after missing out on the playoffs a year ago. There’s been less off-field distractions for them in any off-season in at least 5 years and they’ve been at their best in the underdog role since 2000 (52-31-4 ATS 63%).
2. Arizona Cardinals UNDER 5.5 Wins (-120 at Caesar’s)
I'm not buying an historically small (by NFL standards) rookie QB in Kyler Murray paired with a new head coach in Kliff Kingsbury that was a failure in college. When you take out games against lowly Kansas, Kingsbury was a miserable 13-35 in Big 12 play. If he couldn’t cut it vs college coaches, I don’t expect him to have much success here. Also note that in the current full season lines at CG Technology, Arizona is an underdog in all 16 games! They could pull 5 upsets and we’d still cash our ticket here.
3. Cleveland Browns UNDER 9 Wins (+115 at CG Technology)
I'm a contrarian NFL handicapper and I have no problem fading one of the most talked about teams in the NFL this off-season. The Browns certainly have a lot of weapons at the skill positions, but they have a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens that has to deal with a lot of combustible personalities. They’re also dealing with a lot of expectations for the first time in a long time as the Browns haven’t won a division title since 1989. With a below average offensive line and a sneaky tough schedule early on that features home games against the Rams and Seahawks and road games at Baltimore, at San Francisco and at New England, I think Cleveland could get off to a slow start.
4. Oakland Raiders UNDER 6 Wins (-105 at Caesar’s)
The Raiders are dealing with a lot of distractions with the “Hard Knocks” TV show this pre-season and the impending move to Las Vegas next year. Then coincide that with arguably one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. From September 16 to November 2nd, the Raiders don’t play a single home game and those road trips come against playoff caliber teams like Minnesota, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay and Houston. Overall, the Raiders travel 32,023 miles in 2019 (only team in the NFL this year that will travel more than 30,000 miles).
5. New Orleans Saints UNDER 10.5 Wins (-130 at Golden Nugget)
I still don’t think the Saints are over the devastating loss to the Rams in the NFC Championship game and they’ve been notorious slow starters the last 5 years (1-9 SU/ATS in their first two games of the season). Drew Brees took a nose dive at the end of last season. After having 7 games (in the first 10) with at least an 89.0 QBR, he didn’t top 85.4 in any of his final 7 starts. Now at age 40, can we count on him to play like he has throughout his career? Also in NFC South action, I think Carolina, Atlanta and Tampa Bay will all be improved this year. Someone has to take a step back and I think it will be the Saints.