7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT / #911-912
BALTIMORE ORIOLES w/ Means @ NEW YORK YANKEES w/ German
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*This is an BOX play… Specify BOTH starting pitchers
—We love going OVER the Total in a series in which both teams had a double-header against each other the previous day. And that’ll be the case tonight in the Bronx as the Yankees host the Orioles in Game Three of their 4-game series. And to tp it all off, BOTH of yesterday’s games went OVER the Total… a combined 32 runs were scored… and the bullpens went a combined 16 innings. That puts a LOT of pressure on tonight’s two starters, neither of whom are in sharp current form entering today’s game. We already know that we’ll be backing two of the best OVER teams in the league this season (NY: #5 / BAL: #6). And how about the SERIES tendencies? This Baltimore / New York series has gone 44-10-1 O/U In the last 55 meetings… including 21-5 O/U in the last 26 played IN New York. The team trends alone are worthy of a play...
—YANKEES: 18-6 O/U last 24 games… 26-10 O/U in Game Three of a series… 12-4-1 O/U last 17 same-division games… 7-1 O/U off a win… and 4-0 O/U last four vs lefties.
ORIOLES: 22-8-3 O/U last 33 games versus WINNING (> .500) opponents… 5-1-2 O/U on Tuesdays… 5-0-1 O/U last six versus righties… 6-1 O/U after allowing 5+ runs in previous game… 4-0 O/U last four road games.
—The Righty vs Lefty pitching matchup plays right into our hands. YANKEES last ten games vs lefties are averaging an unreal 14.6 runs per game on offense(!) while the ORIOLES are averaging 5.7 runs per game vs righties.
—Left-hander John Means may have made the All-Star team with his surprising ERA of poly 2.50 in the first half of the season. But its been ALL downhill since then. In his four starts since the mid-summer classic, he has gone 1-3 with an ERA also TRIPLE those earlier season numbers (7.11). He faced to get through for innings in each of his last two outings, allowing 7 runs in only 7 innings pitched. In his only other start vs the Bronx Bombers this season, he was on the losing end of a 14-2 score (4 earned runs allowed in 3 innings). For the hosts, we’ll give credit to Domingo German for seven straight wins in row. But our takeaway from those games is: (1) His Yankee teammates are RAKING IT to the tune of a 8.9 runs per game clip on offense… and (2) German’s ERA in his last four starts is a whopping 6.86. The clincher in terms of this pitching matchup is that German is allowing a lot MORE home runs as of late. In his last five starts (averaging 5.3 innings pitched), German has allowed 10 ‘dongs’. That’s one home run every 2.3 innings pitched.
—We like seeing an accommodating MAN IN BLUE when we like an OVER, and we’re certainly getting that in tonight’s Game Three. Working behind the dish this evening will be MARVIN HUDSON. He started the 2019 season strong, with OVERS in each of his first four games. Then, a patch of 4 straight UNDERS in a row. But since then (early May), Hudson has gone 10-4-1 O/U in his last 15 games. He hasn’t been involved in any one-sided National League games this year (only 4-3-1 O/U / 9.4 runs per game). But his AMERICAN LEAGUE games have gone 7-3 O/U… with a nice high average of 11.4 combined runs per game.