The Braves are better than the Mets. The Braves are home and I don't see Zach Wheeler having any edge on lefty Max Fried.
So at this price, the Braves are a bargain.
Wheeler has been pitching well. I like him. But he's not in the Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard talent level. Wheeler has a 4.50 ERA in two starts versus Atlanta this season.
Fried has posted a solid 3.32 ERA in his past four starts with 25 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings during this span. The Mets hold a losing record versus southpaw starters.
Atlanta does have bullpen concerns. But so do the Mets. Edwin Diaz has an 11.12 ERA in his last six appearances.
The Braves are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Mets.