Valdez was lit up by the Yankees AND Pittsburgh prior to the break, and after the break things RARELY continue as they were. It's a big mistake to assume teams that had been hitting/winning (or losing) just pick up where they left off. Houston won seven of eight while Texas lost six of eight, but on the road. At home, they're 29-17, and 8-1 in Lance Lynn's home starts. In Lynn's last seven starts his ERA is under 3.00 (2.85). Houston hasn't seen much of Lynn and in limited exposure, haven't done much with him. (.203 BA in 52 at bats).

It's typical Arlington weather for July (93* and humid) which I would THINK would effect Valdez (not used to it) more than Lynn, and with such a big total, the RL is very cheap, so although the knee-jerk reaction is to take Houston and the OVER, I love the Rangers RL and the F5 under. Bullpens are rested, but in this case unpredictable, so for the next few days it might be not try to figure them out.