MLB Pick: 973 Cincinnati Reds @ 974 Cleveland Indians
(Starting Pitchers: L. Castillo vs. T. Bauer)
Rating: 4 units - Regular Play
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML
Odds: +112 / 2.12 on Pinnacle Sports OR +111 / 2.11 on Bookmaker
After a terrible start vs. MIL, Luis Castillo bounced back and had 2 decent outings vs. PIT & STL (although I don’t like his 4 & 4 BB’s in those games). I think he is a tough matchup for CLE lineup. Castillo has one of the best Changeups of the game and CLE really struggles vs. CH’s: ranked #27 w -1.32 (L30 days: ranked dead last w -1.57). Also, CLE is fielding a heavy LH lineup today, and Castillo doesn’t have problems in dealing w LH bats: 3.57 XFIP / 0.284 wOBA / 0.085 ISO.
Trevor Bauer has been super inconsistent all season and unlike Castillo, he really struggles badly vs. LH bats: 5.81 xFIP / 0.357 wOBA / 0.222 ISO. CIN has 5 LH bats on the lineup today and so, I expect him to struggle once against in this kind of matchup.