Happy Father's Day! Save $10 on any package or subscription using Coupon Code: HAPPY10  

Pro Pick From
Fezzik

Make this pick

(At current odds)

2019-06-08T01:07:00.000Z 2019-06-08T01:07:00.000Z - NBA

527 Toronto Raptors
vs.
528 Golden State Warriors

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

06/07/2019

NBA Sides

Warriors

92-105

-4½

2

L

-220

Analysis
2 Star Plays:

GST -4.5 2 stars

Boogie Cousins UN 11 points 2 stars

Kawhi Leonard UN 30.5 points, 2 stars


Adding:

Lowry UNDER 15.5 points 2 stars
Green OVER 8 Assists 2 stars


***********


Here are my way too long SOV notes:

Nba Odds Reset:

Game 4 line:  GST -4.5

Series Line TOR -120 GST +100

Biggest Game 4 Factors:

The Return Of Klay Thompson:

KLAY NUMBERS last 5 years:

            When he plays:

                        SU 387-100 (79.5%)

                        ATS 249-227 (52%)

            When he is OUT:   

                        11-14 SU (44%)

                        6-19 ATS (24%)

            Reports are that Klay COULD have played game 3:

                        G State simply did not want to risk him being injured:

Boogie Cousins:   Was Game 2 the Aberration?

            Game 1:  8 min, 3 Points, 1/7, 0 R, 2 A

            Game 2:  28 min, 11 Points 3/8 , 10 R, 6 A

            Game 3:  19 min, 5 Points 1/7, 3 R,  A

            Bill Simmons discussed how he appears to have no “lift” or mobility….

                        C Looney:  73% Fgs Playoffs (54/74)

                        C Cousins: 27% Fgs Playoffs (8/30)

 

Game 4 Question:  How well will Toronto shoot in Game 4?

Game 2 Tor looked timid/hesitant attempting 3s

Tor was held to 37% gs

                        EVERY Toronto Player UNDER 50% Fg

Game 3 Tor:  In Game 3 Tor adjusted to G State’s Decision to focus on Interior Defense:

                        Game 3:  Tor Aggressively bombed from Outside

            Pushed the pace, and got great looks

            Attempted 38 3s, and made 17

In Game 4, we would have to expect Toronto’s offense to perform in between these 2 Far extremes….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Toronto:  UNDERVALUED?  Team is better now than they were Regular Season Stats:

            Upgrades from the Regular Season:

                        Kawhi Leonard missed 22 games

                        Lowry missed 17 games

                        VanVleet missed 18 games

                        Gasol only played 26 games (Acquired Early in February)

Siakam (Most improved NBA player) showed steady gains in his gm during the year:

Averaged only 14.5 points before Jan 1

                                    Jan:  17.5     Feb-Apr:  20 Points

Huge Toronto story change since the Playoffs began:

            Philly Series:  Kawhi has to do it all by himself

                        The other Raptors have all stepped it up

                        Most Recently: All 5 Starters scored 15+ game 3

                                    Van Vleet:  Best 6 game Stretch of his NBA Career

Tor:  Big Game From Danny Green but can it continue?

            Danny Green had been the 1 Tor starter that was struggling

                        Game 3:  16 points, 60%,                       

Playoffs: 7.6 points, 36%

                        Reg Season: 10.3 points, 46%

 

Game 4 Key Injury Status:

Durant:  OUT

Klay:  VERY LIKELY to PLAY

                        Reports are that Klay COULD have played Gm 3

                        However, G. State simply did not want to risk it                              

                                    Injury Aggravation……. 

KEY FACTOR FOR GAME 4:  Less Rest for Game 4

            Game is Friday (ONLY game of FINALS with only 1 day off)

                        Players most likely to be impacted:

                        Golden State:

                                    Klay:  1 fewer day to get back to close to 100%

Boogie Cousins:  4th game back since missing most of the Playoffs……looked slow with no Lift Game 3

Iguoldala:  Age 35 and has been playing with the calf strain, and has been banged up

                        Toronto:  Kawhi Leonard:

                                    Shooting Efficiency has dropped throughout the Playoffs:

                                    Regular Season: 26.6 P, 50%

                                                Orl Series: 28 P, 57%

                                                Phi Series: 35 P, 54%

                                                Mil Series: 30 P, 45%

                                                G ST Series: 29 P, 43%

Prop Numbers for Game 5:

            Tor:

                        Leonard 30.5

                        Siakam 18

                        Gasol 10.5

                        Lowry 15.5

                        Green 9

                        VanVleet 11.5

            G ST:

                        Curry 33.5

                        Green 14

                        KLAY 18.5

                        Cousins 10

                        Iguoldala 8.5

                       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fez BEST BETS (went 2-0 On Gm 3 best bets)

            Golden State -4.5  I LIKE THEM, I BET THEM

                        Classic ZIG ZAG betting situation here

            G State was in a bad spot Game 3

                        Klay Thompson was questionable

                        Toronto was the team coming off a loss

                        Yet the Line was GST -4.5 most of the Day Wed

            NOW, G STATE is in a good spot Game 4

                        Klay will play, and will be healthier than he could have been Wed

                        G State is in a great motivational spot, off a blowout home loss

                        Tor had a clear goal games 3-4, WIN 1 GAME….

                                    Off a win, some letdown is inevitable……

                        I BET GST -4.5

            Prop Bet:  Boogie Cousins UNDER 11 points

                        We are getting value here, because he had such a solid Gm 2

                        However, Boogie looks slowed, and not 100%

                                    3,11,4 in Series….  8 29 19 min

                        Only getting 1 true day off is very likely to impact him greatly

                                    I bet Boogie UNDER, I like him UNDER

                                                            



Pick Creation Time:
06/07/2019 9:29 AM
Comment Stream

Email Share Sent

Your share has been sent.

x

Quick View

Loading...

Future Game

League:

Teams:

Date:

Time:

Pick:

Bet Type:

Odds:

Picked:

Contests: ,

Full Pick Details

x

Multi Quick View

Loading...

Pick Name
Odds: Odds
Picked: Stamp

x

Quick View

Rank:

Member:

Team:

Wins:

Losses:

Ties:

x

Pregame.com Join Contest

x