Nba Odds
Reset:
Game 4 line: GST -4.5
Series Line TOR -120 GST +100
Biggest Game 4 Factors:
The Return Of Klay Thompson:
KLAY NUMBERS last 5 years:
When he plays:
SU 387-100 (79.5%)
ATS 249-227 (52%)
When he is OUT:
11-14 SU (44%)
6-19 ATS (24%)
Reports are that Klay COULD have
played game 3:
G State simply did not
want to risk him being injured:
Boogie Cousins: Was
Game 2 the Aberration?
Game 1: 8 min, 3 Points, 1/7, 0 R, 2 A
Game 2: 28 min, 11 Points 3/8 , 10 R, 6 A
Game 3: 19 min, 5 Points 1/7, 3 R, A
Bill Simmons discussed how he
appears to have no “lift” or mobility….
C Looney: 73% Fgs Playoffs (54/74)
C Cousins: 27% Fgs
Playoffs (8/30)
Game 4
Question: How well will Toronto shoot in
Game 4?
Game 2 Tor looked timid/hesitant
attempting 3s
Tor was held to 37% gs
EVERY Toronto Player
UNDER 50% Fg
Game 3 Tor: In Game 3 Tor adjusted to G State’s Decision
to focus on Interior Defense:
Game 3: Tor Aggressively bombed from Outside
Pushed the
pace, and got great looks
Attempted 38
3s, and made 17
In Game 4, we would have to expect Toronto’s offense to
perform in between these 2 Far extremes….
Toronto:
UNDERVALUED? Team is better now
than they were Regular Season Stats:
Upgrades from the Regular Season:
Kawhi Leonard missed 22
games
Lowry missed 17 games
VanVleet missed 18 games
Gasol only played 26
games (Acquired Early in February)
Siakam (Most improved NBA player) showed steady gains in his
gm during the year:
Averaged only 14.5 points before Jan
1
Jan: 17.5
Feb-Apr: 20 Points
Huge Toronto story change since the Playoffs began:
Philly Series: Kawhi has to do it all by himself
The other Raptors have
all stepped it up
Most Recently: All 5
Starters scored 15+ game 3
Van
Vleet: Best 6 game Stretch of his NBA
Career
Tor: Big Game From
Danny Green but can it continue?
Danny Green had been the 1 Tor starter that was
struggling
Game 3: 16 points, 60%,
Playoffs: 7.6 points, 36%
Reg Season: 10.3 points,
46%
Game 4 Key
Injury Status:
Durant: OUT
Klay: VERY LIKELY to PLAY
Reports
are that Klay COULD have played Gm 3
However, G. State simply
did not want to risk it
Injury
Aggravation…….
KEY FACTOR FOR GAME 4:
Less Rest for Game 4
Game is Friday (ONLY game of FINALS
with only 1 day off)
Players most likely to
be impacted:
Golden State:
Klay: 1 fewer day
to get back to close to 100%
Boogie Cousins: 4th
game back since missing most of the Playoffs……looked slow with no Lift Game 3
Iguoldala: Age 35 and
has been playing with the calf strain, and has been banged up
Toronto:
Kawhi Leonard:
Shooting Efficiency has dropped
throughout the Playoffs:
Regular
Season: 26.6 P, 50%
Orl
Series: 28 P, 57%
Phi
Series: 35 P, 54%
Mil
Series: 30 P, 45%
G
ST Series: 29 P, 43%
Prop Numbers
for Game 5:
Tor:
Leonard 30.5
Siakam 18
Gasol 10.5
Lowry 15.5
Green 9
VanVleet 11.5
G ST:
Curry 33.5
Green 14
KLAY 18.5
Cousins 10
Iguoldala 8.5
Fez BEST
BETS (went 2-0 On Gm 3 best bets)
Golden State -4.5
I LIKE THEM, I BET THEM
Classic ZIG ZAG betting
situation here
G State was in a bad spot Game 3
Klay Thompson was
questionable
Toronto was the team
coming off a loss
Yet the Line was GST
-4.5 most of the Day Wed
NOW, G STATE is in a good spot Game
4
Klay will play, and will
be healthier than he could have been Wed
G State is in a great
motivational spot, off a blowout home loss
Tor had a clear goal
games 3-4, WIN 1 GAME….
Off a win,
some letdown is inevitable……
I BET GST -4.5
Prop Bet: Boogie
Cousins UNDER 11 points
We are getting value
here, because he had such a solid Gm 2
However, Boogie looks
slowed, and not 100%
3,11,4 in
Series…. 8 29 19 min
Only getting 1 true day
off is very likely to impact him greatly
I bet Boogie
UNDER, I like him UNDER