Adding CURRY OVER 32 Points, 2 stars!

Reasons Toronto might be better than the 58 win team in the Regular Season:

Upgrades from the Regular Season:

            Kawhi Leonard missed 22 games

            Lowry missed 17 games

            VanVleet missed 18 games

                        VanVleet played very poorly in Early Playoffs

                                    Distracted by Upcoming Birth of Son……

            Gasol only played 26 games (Acquired Early in February)

Siakam (Most improved NBA player) showed steady gains in his gm during the year:

Averaged only 14.5 points before Jan 1

                        Jan:  17.5     Feb-Apr:  20 Points

            ONE KEY CONCERN:  Kawhi Recent Struggles (Is he wearing Down?)

                        Regular Season: 34 min, 50% fg

                        Orl:  34 min, 57% fg

                        Phi:  40 min, 54% fg

Mil:  41 min, 45% Fg

                        G ST: 41 min, 38% fg

Playoff Path: Tor has already beaten the No2 rated team (Mil) and the no5 rated team (Philly).   Golden State only beat one top 7 team (Hou No3)

 

 

TORONTO, I like Toronto I bet TOR

G State: The cumulative impact of the Injuries  compromises the team:

            Golden State has done well without Durant, but now they are

Just too thin………the markets are not adjusting enough for the cumulative impact of all the injuries

Klay Thompson, likely not 100%

            Left Game 2, with 8 minutes left, Tight Hamstring, Questionable Game 2

            MRI Monday  Confirmed a Hamstring “Strain”

            Klay expects to play, but will he be close to 100%?

C Kevon Looney  UNDER THE RADAR KEY LOSS

            Chest Contusion/Small Fracture Collarbone

            Was No1 on the Team in Playoff Plus Minus

                        Was Shooting 73% in the Playoffs

F Igualdala (Gutting it out)

            Left calf injury Game 1

            Left game 2 briefly after a hard Screen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Cousins played a very Good Game 2, Key Question, can it continue?

            He was key Game 2 with C Looney going down

                        28 min, 11 points, 10 Reb, 6 Assists

                                                He had looked sluggish/rusty gm 1, 8 minutes         

                        With Looney OUT,  Cousins is more important

                        Advanced Analytics have Cousins and Looney being roughly Equal

                                    During the Regular Season

However, you can certainly make the Case, RIGHT NOW Cousins may be a downgrade vs. Looney:

 Looney was playing his best basketball of the year in the Playoffs

1^st on Team in Playoffs in FG percentage (73% !), and Offensive Rebounds

1^st on Team in Playoff +/-, +12.6 per 100 possessions……(ESPN stats/Info)

Can Cousins play well now that he will have to play 30 minutes or so?

            Only his 3^rd game since coming back from Injury……

            Advanced NBA Centers’ Stats (Regular Season):      

                        Looney No 10 in NBA Centers, Real +/-  

                        Cousins No. 11 in NBA Centers, Real +/-

Real +/- Measures the relative value of all players based on the team they are on the court with during Games…….

                        Behind Cousins, Bogut and Bell have not played well…….

                        One would think both will get minutes Tonight……..

 

Tor:  They need to adjust to G State’s Decision to focus on Interior Defense:

Game 2 Golden State limited their shorter shots,

            Made the decision to selectively allow some Tor players open 3s…..

            So they could prevent the shorter shots, and transition shots

            Held Toronto to 37% Fgs from the Field

            EVERY Toronto Player UNDER 50% Fg

Siakam:   Regression to the mean game 2

Game 1:  14/17

Game 2:  5/18

I expect Toronto’s emphasis will be to look to exploit this, and selectively take the open 3s Golden State is offering them (Gasol, Danny Green, Siakam)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GAME 3 PLAYER PROPS:

            G State:

                        Leonard 30.5

                        Siakam 17.5

                        Lowry 15

VanVleet 12

Gasol 9.5

                        Green 7.5

            G State:

                        Curry 32

                        Klay 17.5

                        Green 13.5

                        Cousins 13.5

            Fez BEST BET:

                        Curry OVER 32 Points  I LIKE IT, I BET IT

                                    Since Durant went down Curry is 6-1 OVER 32

                        Curry only 23 Points game 2, HOWEVER

                                    He MAY have been impacted by being sick               

Now with Klay not 100%,

                                    Likely more shots for Curry…..  

                                    I BET CURRY OVER 32 POINTS