Write up to follow...…. with Props
Reasons Toronto might be better than the 58 win
team in the Regular Season:
Upgrades from the Regular Season:
Kawhi Leonard missed 22 games
Lowry missed 17 games
VanVleet missed 18 games
VanVleet played very
poorly in Early Playoffs
Distracted
by Upcoming Birth of Son……
Gasol only played 26 games (Acquired
Early in February)
Siakam (Most improved NBA player) showed steady gains in his
gm during the year:
Averaged only 14.5 points before Jan
1
Jan: 17.5
Feb-Apr: 20 Points
ONE KEY
CONCERN: Kawhi Recent Struggles
(Is he wearing Down?)
Regular Season: 34 min,
50% fg
Orl: 34 min, 57% fg
Phi: 40 min, 54% fg
Mil:
41 min, 45% Fg
G ST: 41 min, 38% fg
Playoff Path: Tor has already beaten the No2 rated team (Mil) and the no5
rated team (Philly). Golden State only
beat one top 7 team (Hou No3)
TORONTO, I like Toronto I bet TOR
G State: The cumulative impact of the Injuries compromises the team:
Golden State has done well without
Durant, but now they are
Just too thin………the markets are not adjusting enough for the
cumulative impact of all the injuries
Klay Thompson, likely not
100%
Left Game 2, with 8 minutes left, Tight
Hamstring, Questionable Game 2
MRI Monday Confirmed a Hamstring “Strain”
Klay expects to play, but will he be
close to 100%?
C Kevon Looney UNDER THE RADAR KEY
LOSS
Chest Contusion/Small Fracture
Collarbone
Was No1 on the Team in Playoff Plus
Minus
Was Shooting 73% in the
Playoffs
F Igualdala (Gutting it out)
Left calf injury Game 1
Left game 2 briefly after a hard
Screen
Cousins
played a very Good Game 2, Key Question, can it continue?
He was key Game 2 with C Looney
going down
28 min, 11 points, 10 Reb, 6 Assists
He
had looked sluggish/rusty gm 1, 8 minutes
With Looney OUT, Cousins is more important
Advanced Analytics have
Cousins and Looney being roughly Equal
During the
Regular Season
However, you can certainly make the Case, RIGHT NOW Cousins
may be a downgrade vs. Looney:
Looney was playing his
best basketball of the year in the Playoffs
1st on Team in Playoffs in FG percentage (73% !),
and Offensive Rebounds
1st on Team in Playoff +/-, +12.6 per 100
possessions……(ESPN stats/Info)
Can Cousins play well now that he will have to play
30 minutes or so?
Only his 3rd
game since coming back from Injury……
Advanced NBA Centers’ Stats (Regular
Season):
Looney No 10 in NBA
Centers, Real +/-
Cousins No. 11 in NBA
Centers, Real +/-
Real +/-
Measures the relative value of all players based on the team they are on the
court with during Games…….
Behind Cousins, Bogut
and Bell have not played well…….
One would think both
will get minutes Tonight……..
Tor: They
need to adjust to G State’s Decision to focus on Interior Defense:
Game 2 Golden State
limited their shorter shots,
Made the decision to selectively
allow some Tor players open 3s…..
So they could prevent the shorter
shots, and transition shots
Held Toronto to 37% Fgs from the
Field
EVERY Toronto Player UNDER 50% Fg
Siakam: Regression to the mean game 2
Game 1: 14/17
Game 2: 5/18
I expect Toronto’s emphasis will be to look to exploit this,
and selectively take the open 3s Golden State is offering them (Gasol, Danny
Green, Siakam)
GAME 3 PLAYER PROPS:
G State:
Leonard 30.5
Siakam 17.5
Lowry 15
VanVleet 12
Gasol 9.5
Green 7.5
G State:
Curry 32
Klay 17.5
Green 13.5
Cousins 13.5
Fez BEST BET:
Curry OVER 32 Points I LIKE IT, I BET IT
Since Durant
went down Curry is 6-1 OVER 32
Curry only 23 Points
game 2, HOWEVER
He MAY have
been impacted by being sick
Now with Klay not 100%,
Likely more
shots for Curry…..
I BET CURRY OVER 32 POINTS