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2019-05-26T00:35:00.000Z 2019-05-26T00:35:00.000Z - NBA

511 Milwaukee Bucks
vs.
512 Toronto Raptors

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

05/25/2019

NBA Totals

OV MIL/TOR

94-100

212

3

L

-330

Analysis


Saturday, May 25 / Eastern Conference Finals / Game Six

#511-512 / 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT

MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ TORONTO RAPTORS

3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL


Toronto has really turned things around on DEFENSE in the last two games of this series. After allowing 116.5 ppg in Games 1 and 2, the Raptors have held the mighty Buck offense to only 100.5 ppg in the last two wins… to get to a current 3-2 series advantage. A lot of bettors will be ‘knee-jerking’ their action on Saturday, and playing the UNDER based on those results. And the line is certainly slowing a ‘shade’ toward the UNDER as well. In fact, this will be the 4th straight game in this series in which the OU lime will be lower than the pervious game. Here’s the OU line evolutions thus far: Game 1 - 218.5… Game 2 - 219.0… Game 3 - 221.5… Game 4 - 216.5… Game 5 - 215.5… and Game 6 (current) - 212.0 to 212.5. At least we know we’re getting some VALUE on our call on the OVER in Game Six. The OU line is 9 points LESS than it was in Game Three. With the series shifting North of the Border, we note that the BUCKS and RAPTORS have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last six meetings IN Toronto, when the OU line is 229 or less points. Average OU MARGIN in these games: +18.5 points per game!


A sharp bettor might think that the UNDER is the definitive way to go in regards to the TOTAL in a Game Six. The later we get into a series, the better the UNDER results… right? But with that said, our database tells us that: 

NBA Playoff ‘3.6’ games (ROUND 3 / GAME 6) have gone 10-2 O/U since 1997… and a PERFECT 6-0 O/U since 2009 when the OU line is in the range of 188 to 214 points (BUCKS @ RAPTORS).


With Milwaukee off multiple losses in a row, we note that: NBA Playoff GAME SIX (in any round) underdogs off 2 or more SU losses (BUCKS) have gone 7-1 O/U when the OU line is > 196 points.


And when a team is off THREE losses in a row, that’s an IDEAL time to bet the OVER… 18-3 O/U All-Time in our database: NBA Playoff road underdogs of 8 < pts off THREE SU and ATS Playoff losses in a row (BUCKS), when the OU line is > 192 points. In the last EIGHT years (since 2012), these teams have gone a perfect 8-0 O/U…


Milwaukee was a home favorite in Thursday’s Game Five, and couldn’t even crack the century mark in points (scored 99)… 10-1-1 O/U since 2015: All NBA Playoff underdogs of a SU Playoff home FAV loss in which they scored LESS than (<) 100 points (BUCKS), when the OU line is 198 > pts. 


As mentioned above, the OU line in Thursday’s Game Five was 215.5 points, and it went Under the Total… 8-1 O/U last 3 years: All NBA Playoff home favorites of 6 < pts (RAPTORS) after a Playoff UNDER when the OU line in that game was 215 or more points.


And here’s another database query based on each team’s LOW-scoring output in their last game:

ROUND 2 or 3 NBA Playoff home favorites of 10 < pts have gone 14-1 O/U in the last four years after BOTH teams scored 105 or less points (RAPTORS and BUCKS) in their last playoff game… when the OU line is > 194 points.


Milwaukee is the #1 seed team in the Eastern Conference… In the last six years, NBA Playoff #1 SEED underdogs of > 2 points (MILWAUKEE) have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U when the OU line is < 214 points. These games have gone OVER by an average MARGIN of +15.9 points per game.  


And Toronto is the #2 seed team in the Eastern Conference… In the last nine years, NBA Playoff #2 SEED home teams have gone 9-1 O/U off a SU road DOG Playoff win (RAPTORS), in ROUNDS 1, 2, or 3… when the OU line is < 219 points.

Pick Creation Time:
05/24/2019 10:45 AM
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