1-star
(564) UTAH -2.5 in first half over Houston. 10:35pm ET. Considering
Utah is now 3-12 SU/4-10-1 ATS vs Houston the last couple of years,
it's becoming clear that the Rockets are a bad match-up for the Jazz and
that is why I can't recommend Utah for the
full game here. With that being said, if Utah is going to show any
fight in this one, it should come early in front of a frenzied crowd.
Obviously we have that dominant first half trend on teams down 0-2 in a
series and coming home (89-41 ATS since 2002, 25-5
ATS the last 4 years and Indiana's non-cover last night was by a
point). Also note favorites in the NBA Playoffs the last 4 years have
gone 111-69-1 ATS (61.7%) and I don't mind fading a Houston team that is
getting 87% of the public tickets right now in the Pregame.com GameCenter as an underdog.
Lean
(562) DETROIT +4 in first half over Milwaukee. 8:05pm ET.
I can't recommend taking Detroit full game because of that dominant
away favorite trend in the NBA Playoffs (favorites laying 7 or more on
the road are now
18-1 ATS since 2013). However, Milwaukee is in uncharted territory here
in that big favorite role on the road in the playoffs and the public is
betting them with nearly 92% of the tickets today. I do think Detroit can give their best effort of the series at least in the first half in front of a sold-out crowd (first playoff game at Little Caesar's Arena).
Small
Lean (558) BROOKLYN +2 over Philadelphia. 3:05pm ET. Joel Embiid is
doubtful for Philadelphia here but we've already been surprised with
Embiid's status in Game 1 (he was doubtful and played) and Game 3 (he
was a late scratch). Contrary to some of the
media narrative that is out there after Game 2, Philly was actually
worse this season without Embiid going 8-11 SU/ATS. Obviously, this is a
must-win for the Nets.
Small
Lean (560) SAN ANTONIO -3.5 over Denver. 5:35pm ET. Outside of a
15-minute stretch (late 3Q-4Q of Game 2), the Spurs have dominated the
overrated Nuggets. Denver had a really nice shooting performance in Game
3 hitting 52% from the field including 15 of
29 from 3-point range and they still lost by 10. San Antonio head coach
Gregg Popovich is 81-49-3 ATS at home in the playoffs but note he has
struggled recently in "Game 4's" going 10-26-1 ATS since 2003 (both
home/away).