MLB Totals Pick: Cincinnati Reds vs. LA Dodgers

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Free Pro Pick From
Andre Gomes

(At current odds)

2019-04-16T02:10:00.000Z 2019-04-16T02:10:00.000Z - MLB

907 Cincinnati Reds
vs.
908 LA Dodgers

Date	Sport/Type	Pick	Score	Odds	Size	W/L	$
04/15/2019	MLB Totals	OV CIN/LAD	3-4	7½-109	Free	L	Free

Analysis

MLB Season Message

I had a MLB service a couple of years ago, but due to lack of time I decided against continuing it. However, I've been doing a lot of background work on the last few months in order to get the needed automation to have all necessary data available and develop my own power rankings to build a predictive model. So, I've decided to only start the MLB season when all starting pitchers had a total of 20 innings pitched which is usually after three starts and so, I believe this is the right time to start. My MLB picks will be free of charge until May 5 (05/05).

MLB Pick #3: 907 Cincinnati Reds @ 908 Los Angeles Dodgers
(Starting Pitchers: L. Castillo vs. C. Kershaw)
Rating: 4 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs
Odds: -109 / 1.92 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

At first sight, it looks like Castillo was great in the three starts he has already made this season with 0.92 ERA, 1.98 FIP and 3.01 xFIP. However, if I look at the quality of their opponents, they have a combined metric of 76 with 100 being the league average, which means that he clearly faced three below average offenses. Besides that, Castillo has a 42.5% HC% rate and a 50.0% Flyball rate something very dangerous when you have a Dodgers offense that is already ranked #1 in the league against RH pitchers.

On the other hand, Kershaw will have his first start of the season and he may be a bit limited regarding pitch count tonight. The Dodgers' bullpen has been shaky with a 5.14 ERA, 4.37 FIP and 4.38 xFIP and the truth is that Cincinnati's offense with a limited sample of 54 PA has been excellent against LH pitchers with a 171 wRC+ and 1.07 OPS against them, so Kershaw might not dominate tonight. I believe this game will then become a relatively high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick Creation Time:

04/15/2019 2:32 PM

Comment Stream

Free Pro Pick From Andre Gomes

2019-04-16T02:10:00.000Z 2019-04-16T02:10:00.000Z - MLB

907 Cincinnati Reds vs. 908 LA Dodgers

Analysis

Pick Creation Time:

Free Pro Pick From
Andre Gomes

907 Cincinnati Reds
vs.
908 LA Dodgers