In the other game, it is setting up to be a "pros vs joes" game in the market place. The public is betting the underdog Auburn with around 60% of the tickets while the line continues to climb with the bigger and sharper bets on Virginia. Anytime, the public jumps in on an underdog (they usually like to back favorites), I get real worried backing that dog. However, I want nothing to do with Virginia here. I've actually downgraded Virginia in my power ratings since the start of the NCAA tournament. Virginia "no-showed" in the first half vs Gardner-Webb, were in a great spot vs Oklahoma and barely covered, nearly lost outright to Oregon and should've lost to Purdue if not for those late-game heroics at the end of regulation. Meanwhile Auburn is a very high variance team because they rely so heavily on the 3-point shot (No. 8 in attempt % and No. 15 in 3-point make %). Virginia has been suceptible at times this season to team's hitting the 3-ball 2nd game vs Duke and vs Purdue) but the Cavs are No. 3 in the country for the season allowing just 28.7% from 3-point range. This is the lowest total for a Auburn game all season which tells me that Virginia will dictate the tempo (No. 353 dead last in the country in tempo). If you had to get involved, I would have a small lean (803/804) Auburn/Virginia OVER 131.5. With a spread around "6", that's kind of the sweet-spot where we could have some late-game fouling in the final minutes.

Most books do not have these individual player props. I found these at West Gate in Las Vegas.

1-star Michigan State Kenny Goins OVER 7.5 points -110. This prop is mis-priced because often times books use full-season stats when projecting player props lines. With reference to Kenny Goins, he averages 8.1 ppg on the season. However, note this is a low game total of 132.5 so scoring is expected to be limited to begin with. Therefore shading every player's scoring average down a 0.5-point or so makes some sense. However with Goins there has been a fundamental change in his production recently. In the first 24 games of the season, Goins averaged 7 ppg and in only 7 of those 24 games did he top 7.5-points. However, after the injury to Nick Ward, Goins' minutes have gone from 28 per game to 35 per game and he has averaged 10 ppg in his last 14 topping 7.5-points 10 times. While Ward has returned from injury, Goins' has still be getting his high minute usage.

1-star Auburn Danjel Purifoy OVER 5.5 Points -110. This prop is mis-priced due to the recent injury to Auburn forward Chuma Okeke. In the only game without Okeke (Elite 8 vs Kentucky), Purifoy got a season-high 32 minutes of playing time. That was 12 more minutes than any other game this season and more than 20 minutes more than his season average. Purifoy also got extended time vs North Carolina after Okeke went down and Purifoy got 12 points in that one. Just two years ago, Purifoy was a regular starter averaging nearly 11.5 ppg before he had to sit out last season with the FBI investigation going on.