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(At current odds)
Date
Sport/Type
Pick
Score
Odds
Size
W/L
$
03/30/2019
CBB Sides
Gonzaga
69-75
-4½-105
1
L
-105
1-star (684) Gonzaga -4.5 over Texas Tech. 6:09pm ET. Obviously, the main story here is Gonzaga's No. 1 offense vs Texas Tech's No. 1 defense. We had a very similar story in last year's Elite 8 between Villanova and Texas Tech and even though the Wildcats had a poor shooting performance, they got the easy win and cover over the Red Raiders. While Texas Tech has an elite player in Jarrett Culver, they have limited scoring options outside of him and I think they will struggle against an underrated Gonzaga defense (No. 12). Even though I have Gonzaga now power-rated as the best team in the country, the Bulldogs really impressed me in their win over Florida St. Gonzaga was the more physical team and weren't intimidated by the Seminoles. The Zags had a 45-36 rebounding edge vs the lengthy Noles. While Gonzaga finished the game on a 12-2 run to get the cover, note that was an impressive close to the game considering FSU is one of the deepest teams in the country. On the other side, obviously Texas Tech has been really great so far in this tournament but I'm not overly surprised as I did have them here in the Elite 8 in my bracket projection. I was surprised with their dominant win over Michigan the other night as they held the Wolverines to just 1 of 19 from 3-point range. Was that great Texas Tech defense or really poor Michigan offense? I'm guessing a little of both. I do have a small lean on the OVER 137 as there has been an overreaction to Texas Tech's monster performance defensively vs Michigan. Prior to Michigan, Texas Tech's offense actually averaged 79.4 ppg in the previous 10 games and Gonzaga games average a total of 152.8 ppg this season.
Lean (682) Virginia -4.5 over Purdue. 8:49pm ET. There were a lot of emotions and huge swings in momentum in that Purdue/Tennessee game the other night and it will be interesting to see how the Boilers respond here. On the other side, I wasn't overly surprised that Virginia struggled with a vastly underrated Oregon team (we had the Ducks as a star-rated play). I do worry that this Virginia team is really struggling from beyond the arc. In their last 4 games, Virginia is only 28 of 104 from downtown (27%). That would rank dead last in the country (No. 353). Keep in mind, Virginia all-season long was a Top 5 team in the country in 3-point shooting (42%). Is the pressure getting to Virginia or is it just a random sample size? If it's a random sample size, then I think we have found some value here on the Cavaliers. One constant is Virginia's defense which has been elite all season long and the Cavaliers are allowing just 52 ppg so far in the NCAA tournament. I don't expect Purdue to be as hot from beyond the arc as they have been the last two games. Remarkably, the Boilers have gone 31 of 61 from 3-point range in their wins over Villanova and Tennessee but will face an uphill climb vs a Virginia defense that is No. 2 in the country in defending the 3 allowing just 28.1%. Also a small lean on UNDER 126.
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