1-star
(674) North Carolina -5.5 over Auburn. 7:29pm ET. North Carolina was going to be my top play of the Sweet 16 round (I was thinking 2-star).
However, North Carolina forward Nassir Little (10.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg) has
had the flu all week and will be a game-time
decision. While Little is North Carolina's 4th leading scorer this
season, he's actually led the Tar Heels in scoring (19.5 ppg) through
the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. With that being said, I
still like the Tar Heels here. North Carolina is used
to playing on the big stage while this is Auburn's first Sweet 16
appearance since 2003. The Tar Heels have a major edge on the boards
here as they are No. 16 in offensive rebounding %, while Auburn is No.
334 in defensive rebounding %. Everyone is talking
about how this will be a track meet tonight (total bet up from 160 to
165) and if it does, that favors North Carolina who is No. 6 in the
country in tempo while Auburn is No. 158 in tempo. In Auburn's 8 highest
lined totals this year (153.5 or higher) Auburn
was just 3-5 SU/ATS in those games. On the other side, when the total is
158 or higher, North Carolina is 14-3 ATS and two of those ATS losses
came when they were laying 24 or more. Auburn lives and dies by the
3-point shot as nearly half of all their shot
attempts are "3's". The Tigers have hit at least 12 "3's" in 7 straight
games but I'm not sure that can last here against North Carolina's
length. I'd honestly fade the big move on the total and have a small lean on the UNDER.
Lean
(667/668) Lsu/Michigan St UNDER 149.5. 7:09pm ET. If you think the value is with LSU, I think you have a more positive EV bet if you take a small lean on LSU +3 in the first half
and avoid the second half where I think Michigan St head coach Tom
Izzo has a huge edge in making adjustments over LSU interim coach Tony
Benford. LSU has noticeably looked far worse in the second half of each
of their last 3 games with Benford (Florida in SEC Tournament, Yale and
Maryland) where the Tigers have nearly blown
a double-digit lead in all 3 games. If you can't be the first half, I would have a small lean on Michigan St -6 full game. However, note that LSU has lost only one game by more than 6 points all season and I expected this line to be a bit shorter. I
think the best value is with the UNDER. Outside
of the Purdue/Tennessee game yesterday, we saw much slower tempos last
night in the Sweet 16. Michigan St's defense has really stepped up as of
late allowing just 57.5 ppg in their last 4 while 5 of LSU's last 7
games have went UNDER the total.
Small
Lean (670) Duke -7 over Virginia Tech. 9:39pm ET. I think there has
been an overreaction to Duke's near loss to UCF in the second round.
Keep in mind, a month ago Duke was a 3-point favorite at Virginia Tech.
Usually, home court advantage is worth around
4 points in college basketball. Therefore, Duke would have been around a
7-point favorite vs Virginia Tech on a neutral court around a month
ago. So Duke laying 7 right now makes a lot of sense, right? Actually
you'd be wrong. The mis-pricing here to me comes
with the fact Duke was playing that earlier Virginia Tech game WITHOUT
Zion Williamson who is worth at least 5-6 points in the market place.
Yes, Virginia Tech won that game outright and yes Virginia Tech was
playing without Justin Robinson but he's
only worth a point or so and I didn't do a major upgrade/downgrade on
either team after that lone result. My power ratings have this game more
in the Duke -8 or -8.5 range, therefore I lean with Duke. I do worry
that the Blue Devils are one of the worst 3-point
shooting teams in the country (No. 329) and were actually really good
from beyond the arc vs UCF and still had to escape with a win.
Lean
(671/672) Houston/Kentucky UNDER 134. 9:57pm ET. This is a tough
game to handicap with PJ Washington's (14.8 ppg, 7.5 rpg) status in
question. Obviously, he is Kentucky's leading scorer and rebounder and
while the cast came off his foot and Washington practiced
yesterday, this line of 2.5 says he is likely doubtful tonight. I'm
going to go with the UNDER here as Kentucky's defense is underrated (No.
8 in efficiency) while the Wildcats also run a very slow tempo (No.
274). The UNDER is actually on a 15-3 run in Kentucky's
last 18 games. Houston's defense is also no joke (No. 12) and the
Cougars also run a slow tempo (No. 248) and the UNDER has gone 9-4 in
their last 13 games. As far as the side goes, I do worry about the shock
factor for Houston. The Cougars have played exactly
one Top 25 power-rated team all year (LSU) while Kentucky has played 13
games vs Top 25 teams. I do have a small lean on (672) Kentucky -2.5. Remember, John Calipari is 11-3 SU/ATS in this round.