1-star (751) 751 Oregon -4.5 over Utah. 11:30pm ET.
The Ducks came into the season as the Pac-12 favorite and were
considered to be a borderline Top 10 team nationally. However, an injury
to one of their best players Bol Bol (21 ppg, 9.6 rpg)
side-tracked
them for most of the season. However, in their last 5 games the Ducks
have finally been playing up to their lofty preseason expectations
winning by an average of 21 ppg and have covered all 5 of those games by
an average of 17 ppg. That includes two comfortable
wins over what many consider to be the two best teams (Washington and
Arizona St). Oregon has the far superior defense here (No. 20 vs No.
263, defense travels) and Utah is a little over-priced in the market
place after notching two wins and covers last weekend
in home-run spots vs the L.A. schools.
Lean (742) Mississippi -3.5 over Alabama. 7:00pm ET.
The Crimson Tide are firmly on the Bubble and probably need two wins in
the SEC tournament to get above the cut line when it comes to the NCAA
tournament. However, I'm not buying it as this Alabama team has been on
the Bubble for awhile now and have not responded well going 2-6 SU/1-7
ATS in their last 8 games. A couple of those games (LSU and Auburn), I
considered to be home-run spots for them and
they still under-achieved. On the other side, we have one of the best
ATS teams in the country this year in Ole Miss at 23-8 ATS under
first-year head coach Kermit Davis. However, I think we're buying Ole
Miss a little low as the Rebels are just 1-3 SU in
their last 4 games. Please note that those 3 losses have come by a
combined 7 points and two of them were to Kentucky and Tennessee (two of
the best teams in the SEC). Also note that if this comes down to free
throw shooting at the end, we have a huge edge
with Ole Miss who as a team hits 78.5% from the free throw line (No. 4
in the country). Meanwhile, Alabama hits only 66.9% of their free throws
(No. 304).