Pro Pick From
sleepyj

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(At current odds)

2019-02-08T04:00:00.000Z 2019-02-08T04:00:00.000Z - College Basketball

665 Pacific Tigers
vs.
666 Saint Mary's CA Galloping Gaels

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

02/07/2019

CBB Totals

UN PAC/STM

78-66

135½

3

L

-330

Analysis
Free CBB 1.5** at bottom.

I'm going with the total in this game for a few reasons...First off I lean to St. Mary's for one reason. The home court advantage for them is huge..One of the best in CBB if you ask me..They beat teams up who come there to play...Now with that said, this line is 15.5 which is high, but I think it helps us that we can get rid of the foul game at the end of the game.

Now the good thing besides the foul game not being a factor is the fact that we needed to offset the free throw line...Both teams shoot very good from the free throw line, so if we can get rid of this free throw line area at the end of the game, that's a big help.

We had an over in Pacific last week and that fell for us...I watched that entire game...I can tell you this much, Pacific is about as slow as hell...They got the rebound and then just passed it around the horn until they had 7 seconds left on the shot clock..Then rifled up a shot with hopes of it going in...They now are on the road and that approach against the nations #69 ranked defense will hurt them big time.....Now on the flip side of that, St. Mary's pace is even slower according to the numbers..St. Mary's pace is #336....That's super duper slow...So just the pace alone should be a snails pace...Notice the total for this game...It's 136, but the season averages say this line should be 142.5....It opened at 137 and fell down to 135.5...Man that's a big drop from the season averages. I'm not worried though because that was sharp money bringing this total down..Problem is they can hammer this total all day and it won't hit what this game could hit for a low.

We always look for bad assisting teams with unders....Well Pacific is #342...Mary's #310...It's nice to see that both teams are in the 300's....That helps each teams defense for sure..pacific defense isn't the greatest, but they played well last week...I think one of the reason that defense played well is because they played so friggin slow on offense...I think we get that again here.

Offensive rebounds both teams avg out combined to be poor..That's good for us.

I think the pace, the fact that St. Mary's might not care much to blow this teams doors off and keep running up the score helps. We take the fouls at the end of the game out hopefully..Assists are terrible and that helps out the defense...As I said, playing Pacific to play fast is insane after what I saw last week...I'll be watching this game as well....I honestly think the final in this one could be in the area of 67-50 Final.

1.5*....SF/Gonz OV 150....This number is low and these two teams could combine for a ton of points...My line for this game believe it or not was 159...Which is very high, but I think they can score that amount...I'm not saying the 150 is wrong, but my line says they can score up to 160.
Pick Creation Time:
02/06/2019 11:40 PM
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