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Pro Pick From
sleepyj

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(At current odds)

2019-02-06T04:00:00.000Z 2019-02-06T04:00:00.000Z - College Basketball

643 San Diego State Aztecs
vs.
644 New Mexico Lobos

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

02/05/2019

CBB Money Lines

San Diego State

70-83

-125

3

L

-375

Analysis
I'm playing this one on the ML...If you have to lay the points, just make it a 1.5* wager.

I think the Aztecs pull out a winner here tonight, but it won't be as easy as the first time these teams met...San Diego St. rolled the Lobo's at home 97-77

The stats say that San Diego St is the far better team and the records indicate that as well...I will say this for New Mexico...they have been game in most of the games they played this season..However they've had a tough stretch of games over the last 3 contests and they have #6 Nevada on deck...That's a clear look ahead game for them...New Mexico has played back to back sandwich spot games that were all on the road.

Now they come back home and have to face a team that smashed them not long ago...San Diego St has now won 3 in a row and are playing rather well...They have Utah St at home which is no easy task, but i think the Aztecs look at this game unlike the Lobo's who might be looking to knock off Nevada.

Stat wise we got the better defense by a mile...New Mexico defense is terrible as they rank #290...SD is ranked #116.....Offense is about the same, but the defensive numbers are far apart for these two.

FG% Defense...SD #69....NM #282
3pt Defense SD...#135...NM #267
Rebound Margin SD...#127...NM #250......This was the area last game that NM got crushed at.
TO margin SD #127...NM #219

Offense is a bit of back and forth.

FT% SD...#67....NM #174
Assists SD #45....NM #157
Blocks SD #235....NM #135
3pt FG% SD #51...NM #143

NM wins a few other areas, but we win the big areas from what I see...I just don't think these teams matchup that well against each other...New Mexico will show up at home, but I'm not sure they will be laser focused...Aztecs could come into this game thinking they will just beat up the Lobo's and that could hurt them..I hope SD comes in confident to play well and that they can beat this team if they duplicate what worked last time...It's not easy going into The Pit, but if a team can do that, it's the Aztecs.

Raw numbers look like this...These favor SD

PPG +7
Assists +2
FG% +5
FT% +1.5
Fouls +1.5
TO's +1.5

That's not bad at all...A +19.5

NM only wins at rebounds, but the real stats numbers and the results say that could be a bit misleading...but it's only a +1 for NM and they also get +1 for steals and blocks combined...So we get a decent +16.5 for a raw number...Plus we win the stats here by a good amount.

I see this one in that 77-74 area maybe...Total says 148 so maybe it'll be around that score.
Pick Creation Time:
02/05/2019 1:53 AM
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