Pro Pick From
sleepyj

Make this pick

(At current odds)

2019-02-03T23:30:00.000Z 2019-02-03T23:30:00.000Z - NFL

101 New England Patriots
vs.
102 LA Rams

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

02/03/2019

NFL Sides

Rams

3-13

+9½

3

L

-330

Analysis
CBB PLAY AT THE BOTTOM

I really don't like the side or total at these numbers, but teasing gives me a chance to get some very good number......Rams +8.5 & UNDER 62.

I think this is a 1,2 or 3pt game. So teasing up the Rams seems best here getting through those key numbers. As far as the total. I think the total is almost right, but money has been coming in on the under. You would expect the total to rise and not fall with the public hammering away. So I have to take the under here and 62 won't be easy to get past in this game.

SUPER BOWL LIII PROPS !!!

I played all these for 1.5 units each.

Gerald Everett OV 24.5yds Receiving....I think he is one of the x-factors in this game.

Todd Gurley OV 32.5yds Receiving....He will be involved in this game. look for him in the pass game.

Robert Woods UN 74.5yds Receiving...I see him being taken away from the passing attack.

Brendin Cooks UN 70.5yds Receiving...Just like Woods, I see the Pats taking him away.

So i decided to attack the Rams correlated as you can see.

You never know with the Patriots what they might do, so some of these i like because they are a bit out of left field. Stats do show some positives for these players though.

James White Rushing yds OVER 19.5....I feel this is a good prop..White has like 9 games above this number for the season.

Total Rushing & Receving yds - REX Burkhead OVER 37.5....looking at his numbers of expected rushes and catches...This number seems very doable..You never know how much a guy like Burkhead will be used..Also the Pats offense has been going on some long drives. At some point you have to mix in a different guy into the drives.

Longest TD of the game...UNDER 46.5yds....This is a long TD...Think about what the pats have done..Dinking and dunking down the field the last few games..Brady isn't going to go deep in this game that often....After Tyreke Hill almost broke a big play, that was his last catch in the AFC championship game...Pats will defend against the deep pass here.

________________________________________________________________________________

N.Kent/UIC OVER 146.5

Yep right back to UIC for another over wager....ugh.

Both of these teams just played and this is a very quick turnaround for both teams being this one is even earlier than normal.

The pace of both teams is very good...UIC #76 and N. kentucky is #160 overall, but if you look at the last 5 games, N. Kentucky is playing much faster and the defense has gotten worse.

Assists will be huge today and I think we got two teams that might come with a lesser than expected defense..Which makes this area strong for us....NKU is #23...UIC #84....That's good for us and this should help us get some extra open looks.

Blocks are not in our favor at they ranked 104th combined.

What is in our favor and I think we get this area this time around is 3pt shooting.

3pt %....NKU #79....UIC #106

3pt att...NKU #34...UIC #12

Now the free throw can be an issue....These teams both stink at free throw shooting, but they will get chances because of how much these two teams like to foul

FG% for both teams is good as well...#79 NKu and UIC #117

I also like the steals stat and the turnover stat...I could see this game having turnovers and plenty of points in transition as well.

I think this one could be close, but i like what i see...77-74 Final
Pick Creation Time:
02/02/2019 7:13 PM
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