Pregame NFL Record – 3 Years:
253 – 202 @
56% for +30.8
Units
2018 NFL Record
75 – 64 @
54% for +4.6
Units
Super Bowl LIII
Los Angeles Rams +2.5
My model has this one at Rams -1.7, so when the line opened
at Rams -1 or -1.5 at most early market-setters, I felt there won’t be any
value one way or another. Well, this one
shifted rather quickly, and currently sits at Rams +2.5, giving me about 4.5
points of pure line-value. The
bookmakers have to adjust the line based on where the money is coming in, and
with 80%+ of all the wagers on the Patriots, it’s not a surprise this line had
to shift. But of course in the process,
it created solid value on the underdog.
So the only question remains, can the Rams win (or cover)
this game? Yes, of course they can. The defense has the pieces necessary to make
life difficult for Brady. Donald is a
beast, and Suh is no slouch either.
Pressuring Brady up the middle is the recipe to slowing down this Pats
offense and if the Rams can do that, they’ll have a good chance in this
one. Furthermore, Rams’ Aqib Talib is an
excellent cover corner, and he’ll be able to take away one side of the field in
this one. If I were McVay, I’d actually
stick Talib on Edelman, and let him use his physicality to try to take Brady’s
favorite weapon away. Offensively, the
Rams have some explosive pieces in Cooks, Woods, Reynolds, and…..Gurley(?) Belichick will try to take away one of these
pieces but he won’t be able to shut-down all of them. My concern is with McVay a bit, after his
overtly conservative approach in the 4th quarter and OT of last week’s
game. Being conservative is not how you
beat the Pats, so hopefully he watches film on last year’s Super Bowl, and how
Philly’s aggressiveness got them the title.
Bottom line is that I believe a ‘better’ team is getting a
few points in this one.
There’s virtually no way this line gets to 3, so no need to
wait from my perspective. If anything, I
see it dropping back down as we go into the final week.
Enjoy the Super Bowl and Good Luck!