Pregame NFL Record – 3 Years:
253 – 202 @
56% for +30.8
Units
2018 NFL Record
75 – 62 @
55% for +6.8
Units
Conference Championships - NFL Plays:
#1: Kansas City Chiefs
-3 (-115)
My model has this game at Chiefs -4.2, so there’s value in
the home team. New England carries the
‘name recognition’ at this stage of the season, but Chiefs are a better
team. The question is, how much are we
to discount for ‘playoff experience’, as that’s the main reason this line is at
FG. Well, I think the Chiefs are positioned
well to win this one. They’re at home,
obviously, and pretty much every good NFL team plays much better at home than
on the road. While the Chiefs’ defense
is mediocre, they do have the pass-rush (ranking top-10 in ASR%) to bother
Brady at times, especially if he holds on to the ball too long. Brady doesn’t do that often, but NE will have
to execute their short-range offense to perfection here, as I simply don’t see
many big plays out of this squad. Gronk
is a shell of his former self, and with Berry coming back to shadow him, that
explosive factor simply won’t be there.
Chiefs, on the other hand, have explosive weapons at every level, and
big plays could be the norm here. Sure,
NE will scheme to prevent those, but with the 31st ranked pass-rush,
even a perfect coverage scheme can’t hold up all game. I think the Chiefs have the personnel and the
team to win this game, and being at home gives them even more of an edge. The line is too short from my perspective. Back the Chiefs with confidence.
FREE PICK
New Orleans Saints
-3
My model has this game at Saints -4.5, so value here. The question is why? I know the Saints have looked pretty mediocre
in their last number of games, but they’ve finished the season playing on the road
in 3 of their last 4 games prior to meaningless week 17-matchup. Plus having all that time off sure made them
look ‘rusty’ against Philly last week.
Regardless of all that, to me they’re still the better team. I’m simply not sold on Goff leading the Rams
on the road, in one of the toughest places to play in all of the NFL. He’s
struggled mightily on the road compared to home this year, and there’s even
more pressure in this one. Give me Drew
Brees and Co. at only a FG at home any day, and that’s the way you have to go
in this one.
Good Luck