The St. Mary's Gaels have been a household name for years. They deserve to be as well because they've had a very good team surrounding them for years. I'm not so sure though this team is as good as those other St. Mary's teams.

St. Mary's is just 12-7 on the season and it's rare they start out with 7 losses usually. I'm sure we can go back, but you guys get my drift. When i broke these teams down, I'm convinced these are even teams in this venue. I'd favor San Diego on a neutral maybe by 1.5. The problem for most teams is the venue. St. Mary's is a tough place to play and they are rated high as far as home court advantage. San Diego has played here though and we get some revenge. 6 times revenge to be exact. you might say Sleepy, what the hell with the 6 times revenge. These teams haven't even played yet, but the Toreros haven't beaten this Gaels team the last 3 season. They are 0-6 the last 6 seasons and revenge is in order. I doubt you'll see a handicapper say it's because of experience. San Diego has 3 starting seniors that have been beaten my St. Mary's since they came to college basically. They never beat this St. Mary's team. So you now know we have experience and experience revenge carries over. I'm not sure other handicappers look at that type of stuff, but I do and I know it's important. San Diego also has a few other Seniors (non-starters) and underclassmen who sat through those losses as well that come off the bench. Keep that in mind for the future.

Now St. Mary's might offset that angle, but they don't in fact it's perfect for us. 

The Gaels start

1- SR

2- JR

2- SO

The bench is mainly player by 4 players.

2- SO

2 - FR

Let me talk quick about the Gaels center. He is the only Senior on the team and he often gets into foul trouble and that limits his minutes. So we have that going for us. So he is the only player that has beaten San Diego every time he played the last 4 years. We 100% have the experience edge in this game and those Seniors we have, have all played in this venue before. They want revenge !!! 6 times revenge !!!

Strength of schedule should be noted. These teams are close to each other for the season. St. Mary's has lost 7 games this season. Those losses include decent teams. Utah St., Miss St., Harvard, UC Irvine, LSU, Western Kentucky & San Francisco....Not really all that bad, but a good St. Mary's team usually beats half of what they lost. Who did they beat though that's good? New Mexico St., New Mexico, BYU. Not really the best teams, but teams that can compete. let's give them that, but I'm not impressed.

San Diego on the other hand has some of the same caliber losses. @Washington, @Ole Miss, @Oregon, Drake (who is rather good), Santa Clara (no excuse) and Pepperdine(no excuse)

Who have they beaten though that's good? Colorado, San Diego St. Washington St. and a few other teams with winning records.

So the SOS is very much the same so let's just grade them as about even, but I think San Diego as of right now has the better wins and the better losses. So I feel we get that advantage here.

So we got the experience and the strength of schedule so far. Oh yeah and 6 times revenge.

Let's get into some stats now.

Both teams on offense are almost the same and both on defense are very close. PPG wise adding up both together. St. Mary's get the nod by about 4 points. That's not much guys being favored by 10.5

San Diego wins these areas.

Assists +4.5

Rebounds +0.5

Free Throw Attempts +1

Blocks +1.5

Assist to TO Ratio +1.5

Free Throws Made +0.5

3pt FG Def% +0.5

So that's a small raw number of +8.5

St. Mary's wins these areas.

FG% + 2

TO's +3.5

Fouls +0.5

Steals +1.5

3pt FG% +3

That's a raw number of 10.5

So a difference of about +2 in raw number. That is not good for a team even at home laying 10.5 pts guys. Let me show you a few other things as well with these teams and I'll show you how even they are just on paper, but we do have clear advantages.

I preach all the time about rankings in the 300's and how that hurts a team. Well guess what, San Diego is ranked in the 300's in about 40 stat areas (0) times..yes zero....St. Mary's on the other hand is ranked in the 300's in (3) areas. Block per game, assists per game, and turnovers forced. They also rank in (3) other areas #278 in rebounds per game, #265 fewest fouls. #250 in offensive rebounds per game.

San Diego has one ranking that we identified above as a +1.5 for St. Mary's Toreros rank #277 in steals per game. Not what they do best and #282 in fewest fouls per game.

if you really dig through the stats and weight them out, these teams are about dead even. San Diego has an advantage with FG % defense by a tick. St. Mary's FG offense % by a tick. San Diego get to the line more with FT Attempts by a tick, but St. Mary's FT% is better by a tick. It's a bunch of that type of nit picky stuff that really doesn't matter. It's those 300's that matter and SSG (Same Statistical Gaps) that I talk about. Those things show up. Revenge shows up. Experience shows up. San Diego a much better team shows up. This isn't the same St. Mary's team that ran along side Gonzaga for years in this conference. Those guys are all gone and St. Mary's is left with a foul prone center now.

So I have this game as even on this court. Which probably hasn't happened in a very long time. I'm sure our Seniors know this and I'm willing to be the Gaels know they are in for a fight tonight. I'm not saying San Diego is going to win outright, but I'm certainly saying anyone who lays the points is simply guessing at this game. We got the data. We got the advantages here and this game handicap tells me this line should be about St. Mary's -1. I'm taking a small amount of cash however and putting it on San Diego ML though. I have faith in this work and in San Diego tonight. 

69-67 Final - Either team can win.

Now I told myself the other day what good does it do me to waste handicaps. Guys I break down games until I find what you've been getting and what you get here. I bet those handicaps all the time and I feel it's right that I give you those games as well for all your support. Now you guys get the best of the best in my write-up premium play, but some of those games I dig deep into. It's just doesn't offer the value that these games do.

So here is what I'm going to do. You guys motivate me - I'll motivate you. 

I'm giving you guys from today the games I break down. i might include some key points, but know I looked at these games and I'm giving you my opinion on the games I worked. What good does it do me not to give them to you. 

I should see more of you guys looking for my thread and saying what's up. You stink, great write-up, whatever. If you guys ever need to talk about CBB or a game in specific. Just send me a DM. I'm not always around, but if it's a night game, I'll usually get back to you and if you're looking at a specific game and I didn't get to it. I'll look at it for ya and get back to you before tip-off.

Here are the extra games I worked on last night. Our premium today was about a good 2 hours if anyone is wondering.

Long Beach OV 146.5 - Foul fest

Hawaii OV 131.5 - This one is off for sure, but not by what I think this game is. maybe 6pts. 

New Mexico -11.5 - I feel a blowout is very possible.

St. Bonaventure +2.5 - I'd actually play small wagers on side and Bonnie ML

Idaho UN 142 - Teams struggle in this venue to shoot high %. Even the home team struggles at times.

Conference, Conf Touney, NCAA 64 tips below. (copy & paste)

https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/cbb/1397955/sleepy-s-cbb-handicapping-tips

Let's hope we win this one tonight. I feel very good about it. Thanks again guys