Indianapolis Colts +4.5 

This line has been steadily dropping, going from -6 at some places early in the week to now -4.5 a few hours before kickoff.  It’s for good reason as Indy has been one of the better teams in the league in the second half of the year.  And it’s not just their offense, their D has ranked #7 overall.  By comparison, KC is a bottom-10 defense, and 32^nd against the run.  This is important as running the ball effectively against KC, keeps their offense off the field, and more importantly, opens the game up for the dominant Colts offense to execute well in the passing game as well.  My model has this game at -4 KC, but that’s looking at full-year numbers.  When you adjust for how well Colts have been playing in the second half, it’s pretty easy to understand why the number has been dropping.  Oh, and the weather could be a bit of an issue for this Chiefs offense, with snow in the forecast.  I like this one to be close.