Indianapolis Colts +1.5

This is the 3^rd meeting of the season between the two teams, with each team winning one in the previous two meetings.  My model has this one at -2.5 HOU, so one could argue that Texans are slightly under-valued here at home.  But Colts have been the better team over the second half of the year.  Houston ranks last on offense in protecting the QB, having allowed 56 sacks and adjusted Sack Rate of 11%.  Sure not all of it is the line’s fault, but with limited WR’s in the passing game, Watson is forced to hold onto the ball often.  Indy has the O-line to protect Luck, they have better offensive weapons, and I like the way their D is playing.  To me they're clearly the better team here and I'll bet on Luck to carry them to victory in this one.