Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Saturday, Nov. 17th
7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT (time change)
#397-398
SEC Conference
MISSISSIPPI REBELS @ VANDERBILT COMMODORES
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
What do you get when you have the following in play on Saturday night?
The #125th defense (out of 130!) in the country (499.3 YPG allowed) against the #90 defense (421.8 YPG allowed)…
The #5 offense in the country (535.9 YPG) against a 392 YPG offense…
The #1 QB in the entire SEC vs the #5 QB…
The #1 passing offense in the SEC vs the #5 passing offense…
You get a Saturday night SHOOTOUT. Its no wonder that the OU line is so high for this week’s MISSISSIPPI @ VANDERBILT game (opened at 66.5 / up to 67-67.5). These ok. There’s still plenty of value the OVER. Based on the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is: Vanderbilt 35 - Ole Miss 32. Our database models and simulations come out with a much HIGHER score. High enough to warrant an escalation into 3*** Best Bet territory.
Ole Miss will be the BEST offense Vanderbilt plays all year. They have a VERY experienced offensive line with multiple NFL prospects… the top NFL wide receiver prospect in the entire country… a home run hitter in the backfield who can take it to the house at ANY time… and a Sweet Hawaiian Prince at QB who is ranked #1 in the entire conference. That’s right. Ta’amu of Mississippi has 850 MORE passing yards than Tagovailoa of Alabama! Apparently, previous Head Coach Freeze had a smart thing going… paying great recruits and all. The Rebels are the #6 offense in S&P+ and the #5 in Total Offense. They average 535.9 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play. They have scored 43 offensive touchdowns and average 40.8 points per game. 40 point freaking 8 points per game! They run a read option based spread (like everyone else), that uses the power run to win the point of attack. This creates a fantastic isolation for their playmakers, whether it is out wide or carrying the ball out of the backfield. And quarterback Jordan Ta’amu is their Sweet Hawaiian Prince. Last week, we rode Kyler Murray of Oklahoma to an Over-EASY winner… thanks to his ranked of #1 in the country in passing yards per attempt. Well, Ta’amu is right behind at #4 in the country in this key offensive statistic (9.67 yards per passing attempt). Despite that fact that the Rebels will NOT make a Bowl game, it sure seems like they have found their stride on offense. They have feasted on bad defenses and exposed average… and even good ones. They’re on a 10-3-1 O/U run when playing of a SU loss in their last game…. and 6-1-1 O/U in her last 8 games on field turf.
Speaking of ‘last games’, let’s not first the most recent meeting between these two teams. In 2017, the OU line in the OLD MISS / VANDERBILT game was 56 points. Final score was 57 to 35. That’s 92 combined points. The OVER cashed by an easy +36 points. For the hosts, it starts with their poor defense. they just can’t get off the field. Blame the lack of a constant pass rush. And also blame the fact that Vandy is allowing teams to convert a whopping 49% of their third down chances. In their last six games, the D has allowed 50% or MORE. On offense, the Commodores already have an outstanding running game. But against tis poor Ole Miss secondary, QB Kyle Shurmur could very well be amazing on Saturday night. He’s already improved BIG-TIME form last season to this one. He right behind Ta’amu, Tagovailoa, and Drew Lock (of Missouri) in terms of overall passing yards in this conference. He reminds me a little of the Oklahoma State QB that we needed to have a big game for us last week (for our 5* Over of the Month)… and who DID. Senior QB Taylor Cornelius outdueled Kyler Murray and threw for 501 yards. When we’re on an OVER, it’s important that we get those ADDITIONAL yards and points from the ‘other’ QB, And it’s comforting to us when he is a senior. Well, Shurmur of the host Commodores is ALSO a senior QB who’s numbers have improved in every one of his four years. From a QB rating of 93.9 to 110.9 to 137.6 to 140.4 (this year). The bottom line is that this game has all that we are looking for in a back-and-forth SHOOTOUT: (1) The line’s low enough (Vandy is -2.5 to -3) to justify a close game, and OVERTIME is a possibility… (2) We have a stud QB on one side, and a senior QB at HOME on the other side… (3) We have multiple additional offense weapons win each side in addition to those QB’s… (4) We have not one but TWP teams that are no strangers to quick, explosive plays on offense… (5) and we have two exceptionally WEAK defenses. Our database models point to a final score a little more like this:
VANDERBILT COMMODORES 41
MISSISSIPPI REBELS 38
That’s around 79 to 80 combined points. Any college game with an OU line that’s 10 or more points higher or lower than our projected final score triggers a 3*** Best Bet for our service.