Sunday, Nov. 11th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#263-264
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Despite an overall high-scoring season, NFL games have been making a move toward the UNDER in the last few weeks, and so has our Totals Team. So it makes sense to stick to what’s been working. And that’s ‘Going LOW’ in division games. In this case, a COLTS vs JAGUARS series that’s gone 3-11 O/U in the last seven seasons... including a PERFECT 0-7 O/U when playing AT Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Avg OU line: 43.8... Avg combined points: only 32.1... Avg OU margin: -11.7 points per game. Not only that, but ALL AFC South Division games have gone 1-10 O/U in the last 12 months when the OU line is 48 or less points. These games have already gone 0-3 O/U THIS season, with a LOW average of 26.3 ppg. The OU line in this one opened at 47.5. It’s already working it’s way DOWN, so get your play in ASAP. That line move does not surprise us, especially from a statistical perspective. We already know that the Jaguars are DEAD LAST (#32) in offensive Red Zone TD% on the road this year. But on defense, BOTH of these teams are ranked in the TOP EIGHT in Red Zone TD% allowed (50% each). So we could very well see more field goal attempts than usual.
Our first database query looks at each team’s current winning percentage (both are 3-5 SU / .375)… 9-29-1 O/U s’2004: All WEEK 8 or greater games when BOTH teams are < .400 for the year (Jags @ Colts). These games have gone 1-8-1 O/U in the last 12 months.
The visiting Jaguars are off their annual LONDON game…. 0-5-1 O/U last 5 years: All division UNDERDOGS off a Neutral Site game (Jags).
The impotent J’Ville offense has not cracked 20 points since late September… 1-10 O/U s’2014: All GAME 8 or greater underdogs of +6 < points who scored 18 or less points in EACH of their last four games (Jags).
Not only that, but they are also off 4 SU and ATS losses in a row… 1-9 O/U last 4 years: All NFL road underdogs off BBB SUATS losses (Jags), when the OU line is > 45 points.
On the flip side, we are certainly aware that Indy’s offense is indeed trending lately (28.8 ppg TY / 42, 37, and 34 points in last 3 games)… 0-8-1 O/U since 2012: All NFL teams who scored 34 > pts in EACH of their last 3 games (Colts), when the OU line is < 48 points.