Sunday, Nov. 11th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#259-260
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
3*** BEST BET in: UNDER the TOTAL
We’re calling this Best Bet our ‘Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat’ play of the week. For those who are not up on their Latin, that phrase means: FORTUNE Favors the BOLD. And these days, a sharp OU bettor has to be pretty BOLD to play a Patriots game UNDER the Total. After all, they’re still ranked in the Top Ten in total offense (387.6 ypg),and #4 in scoring offense (30.0 ppg). But with plenty go OU ammo from our database to back us up, we’ll gladly Go BOLD in this game. And it certainly doesn’t hurt us that we have a couple of pretty good defenses going in this game. If I were to ask you which team in the NFL has allowed the least amount of (a) points per game this year… and (b) the least amount of TD’s on the season… who would you guess? Maybe the Baltimore Ravens… or Chicago Bears… or Dallas Cowboys… or Philadelphia Eagles… or Jacksonville Jaguars. Actually, that team is the TENNESSEE TITANS. They come in allowing only 17.6 ppg this season, which is the fewest in the entire league (next bet team s Baltimore at 17.8). Tennessee has allowed only 12 offensive TD’s in their seven games this season. That average of only 1.7 TD’s per game is (obviously) the lowest in the entire league (New England is #10, allowing only 2,4 TD’s per game). So its no wonder that the TITANS are already 2-5 O/U for the year. They could very well be 0-7 O/U… if not for 2 freak TD’s in Game One vs Miami (2 kickoff returns)…and the fact that their game vs Philadelphia went into overtime. In the last 12 months, Tennessee’s last 9 CONFERENCE games (AFC opponents) have gone 1-8 O/U. In the last three years, the Titans are 1-7 O/U as Conference UNDERDOGS. On the flip side, sharp OU bettors already know that New England’s BEST ‘Under’ results have been on the ROAD, particularly as ‘chalk’. The Patriots have gone an UNDER-whelming 3-16 O/U in the last five seasons as Road FAVORITES of -3 > points when the OU line is 52 or less points.
It’s a short week for the host Titans, as they played in ‘Big D’ on Monday night. That’s the first area of query from our database….
DID YOU KNOW? So far this season, NFL teams off a Monday Night ROAD game (Titans) have gone a PERFECT 0-9 O/U!
In the last 12+ seasons, NFL underdogs of > 1 points off a MONDAY win in which they were a DOG of > 3 points (Titans) have gone 2-13 O/U.
Not only did Tennessee pull off a DOG win last Monday, but they did it in dominating fashion. They didn’t even need the points as they beat the Cowboys by 14 points… 2-18 O/U since 2013: All NFL home teams off a BIG DOG win of 14 or more points (Titans).
If you have followed our OU plays for a while, then you know how we feel (in terms of TOTALS) when the road team is favored by a significant margin in a NFL game. At last look, the Patriots were listed and road favorites of -6.5 to -7 points in this game… 15-46-1 O/U last 5 years (75% Unders): All NFL road FAVORITES of -6 or more points (Patriots) when the OU line falls in the range of > 41 points and < 50 points. These games have gone 11-42-1 O/U in Week 15 or less (80% Unders)… and 2-12 O/U in the last 12 months (86% Unders).
So BOTH of these AFC teams are off non-conference wins last week. New England (AFC) beat Green Bay (NFC) last Sunday Night. And Tennessee (AFC) beat Dallas (NFL) last Monday Night… So not one, but BOTH teams are active in this LOW-scoring situation in the 2018 season: 1-11 O/U so far this year: All AFC teams off a Non-Conference win (Pats beat Pack / Titans beat Boys)… versus any AFC opponent.
We are certainly aware that New England has turned up their scoring in the last six weeks. Since Week Four, the Patriots have scored 38 pts, 38 pts, 43 pts, 38 pts, 25 pts, and 31 pts in their last six games. The database tells us that: In the last four seasons, NFL teams have gone UNDER the Total 90% of the time (1-9 O/U) after scoring 25 or more points in EACH of their last six games (Patriots), when the OU line is < 51 points.