Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars

Saturday. Nov. 10th

3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT

BIG 12 Conference

#151-152

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS @ OKLAHOMA SOONERS

53*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

Get your play in ASAP. We putting this one out nice and early… on Wednesday afternoon. BEFORE the big OU line ‘rush’ towards the OVER. This 113th edition of ‘BEDLAM’ opened with an OU line of 75.5 points. I got my action in at 76. As we type this on Wednesday, its already up to 765 to 77 points. And it could very well go UP past 80 points by the time we get to the Saturday kickoff time of 3:30pm ET (12"30pm PT). So like we always say… to get the BEST OU line value… bet your OVERS as early in the week as possible. It could be the difference between a win or a loss. 

Marc Lawrence and I covered this game on this week’s Playbook.com podcast (‘Against the Spread’). As I was handicapping the game on Tuesday night, I already knew it would be a Best Bet for our service. And the more I researched it, the better I liked it. Yes, the bar has been set high for us (in regards to the OU line). But everything I have studied indicates that there is STILL double-digit point value on the OVER… even at the current line. This one could very well see 100 or more combine points. After all, last years meeting tallied 114 points!

In fact, let’s review the ‘Bedlam’ series. The last five meetings between OKLAHOMA and OKLAHOMA STATE have gone 5-1 O/U. If you think the OU line for this season’s meeting is on the high side, you’d actually be wrong. The average OU line in the last five meetings has been 79.8. That’s about 3-4 points HIGHER than this year’s line. And the average combined points in those last five meetings has been 96.4. That is NOT a misprint. These two teams have averaged 964 combined points per game. That is a gaudy average OU MARGIN of +16.6 points per game. Yes, the average game has gone OVER by almost 17 freakin’ points. Last year, the OU line in Stillwater was similar (76.5). Ans the final score was OKLAHOMA 62 - OKLAHOMA STATE 52. That game was tied at 38 apiece at the half. The Sooners (with QB Baker Mayfield) had 785 yards (598 thru the air). And the Cowboys (with QB Mason Rudolph) had 661 yards (448 thru the air). One might think that with both of these quarterbacks now in the NFL, that there might be a significant drop off at that position. Obviously, that is not the case. In fact, both of this year’s signal callers have had better stats this season the their counterparts did last year.

It starts with Oklahoma redshirt Junior KYLER MURRAY. Even though his team scored 51 points last week vs Texas Tech. Murray actually had an ‘off game’ (for him). He went 20 of 35 for 360 yards with 2 INT’s. If he poured in 51 points on an off-day, then the sky is the limit this week. Sharp bettors know that Murray has the BEST QB ranking of any signal0caller in all of college football. His rating of 216.6 is even better than the future Heisman Trophy winner (Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama is at 215.2). Murray is ranked #7 in average passing YPG. But the most IMPORTANT stat is his average yards-per-attempt. There are only 7 guys with great averages of 9.0 or more YDS/A. But Murray blows them ALL away with an average of 12.3. His TD to INT ratio is 31 to 6. 

Not far behind Murray is the Cowboy quarterback. That would be redshirt Senior Taylor Cornelius. Its always nice to know that when we are on an OVER, we are relying on not one but TWO upperclassmen at the QB position. Cornelius is not only a great passer, but he’s a dual-threat guy based on his stature. He’s a huge 6 foot / 6 inches and weighs 232 pounds. He tied a career high with 5 TD’s in the recent win over Texas (which went OVER by 14 points). Just like his counterpart, Cornelius is also ranked in the Top Ten in the country in passer rating (159.7). 

This is the ONLY game on this week’s schedule featuring TWO Top Ten offenses. No wonder the OU line is in the high 70’s. This two teams average a combined 87.4 points per game. And NEITHER defense is what you call ‘stout’. After all we are talking about the BIG 12 Conference here. This is the worst Sooner defense of the last five seasons. And the Cowboys basically ALWAYS have a bad defense (have allowed over 400 YOG in each of the last four years). We already know that Oklahoma is a GREAT ‘Over’ year in Conference play (41-19-1 O/U Last 61 Big 12 games). Also 26-9-1 O/U of an ATS loss in their last game… 8-0 O/U after scoring 40+ points… and 8-2 OP/U after ALLOWING 40+ points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have had their BEST ‘Over’ success in the month of November (11-2 O/U L13). Also 8-1 O/U off an ATS loss in their last game… and 8-3 O/U In their last 11 Conference games. 

Based on the current spread and OU line, the predicted final score is: Oklahoma 47.5 - Oklahoma State 29. Our database models and simulations come up with a much HIGHER final score:

OKLAHOMA SOONERS 51

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS 41

That’s a difference of 15.5 points. Any College Total that’s 14 more higher or lower than the current OU line triggers a 3** Best Bet for our service. And that’s a conservative estimate as well. We could very well see 100 or more combined points. Oklahoma’s last 5 conference games have totaled 99 pts, 93 pts, 79 pts, 65 pts, and 97 pts.