NFL Week Ten
Thursday, Nov. 8th
8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT
#107-108
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Get your play in ASAP. I got mine in at the opening number of 50. As of this writeup (Tuesday afternoon), the line has already gone up a pointer two… to the current number of 51 to 51.5 points. And it will probably go up as we get closer to the Thursday night kickoff time as well.
It looks like a Steel City SHOOTOUT is in store for the Thursday game. Sharp OU bettors are already aware that Pittsburgh’s BEST ‘Over’ results are at Heinz Field. Put ‘em on the road (like last week), and their offensive numbers are just pedestrian (and they are great UNDER plays). But at HOME, the Steelers score points quickly, consistently, and in bunches. 2018: 31.2 ppg… 2017: 29.8 ppg… 2016: 28:4 ppg… 2015: 30.6… 2014: 30.4 ppg… Meanwhile, we cashed an Over EASY winner with Carolina in their home game vs the Buccaneers last week (42-28 final score). But according to our NFL off-season article (‘Blowing Your Mind’ / OU style), the absolute BEST time to bet a Panthers OVER has been on the road against very good teams like the Steelers. In the last five seasons, CAROLINA has gone a PERFECT 12-0 O/U on the ROAD versus all opponents with a current winning percentage of > .600 (PIT is .714). These games have averaged an OVER-whelming 58.5 combined point per game!
For our weekly publication (Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET newsletter), I do a lot of research on offensive and defensive tendencies in the Red Zone… and how they impact overall scoring. And in this weeks issue, our latest RED ZONE update is significant. Pittsburgh is ranked #2 in the league in OFFENSIVE Red Zone TD% (at 75%), while Carolina is right behind at #5 (72% TDs). That means that once these teams get into the Red Zone on offense, they turn those trips into TD’s rather than FG’s at a very high percentage. A KEY stat when we are betting on an OVER...
The host Steelers are back in first place in the AFC North after three straight DIVISION games in a row (in which they won all three).
26-8-1 O/U since 2009: All NFL teams off three STRAIGHT division games in a row (STEELERS). These teams have gone 10-1 O/U when FAVORED by > 3 pts (PIT).
Last week, Pittsburgh cashed as a division DOG (vs Balt), while Carolina cashed as a division FAV (vs TBay).
5-0-1 O/U L5Y: All NFL teams of a division DOG win (PIT) vs any opponent off a SUATS division FAV win (CAR).
The HOT offense for the visiting Panthers (30.0 ppg L6 / 36 and 42 pts last two) is bringing back fond memories of the 2015 Super Bowl season.
8-0 O/U last 7 years: All NFL teams off back-to-back HOME games in which they scored 35 > pts AND allowed 21 > pts (PANTHERS), when the OU line is > 47 points.
This is one of those NFC @ AFC games that have already gone 71% OVER the Total this season (12-5 O/U)...
28-9-1 O/U last 3 years (75% Over): All GAME 11 or less AFC home teams (PIT) vs any NFC opponent (CAR).
Let’s not forget that after a slow start, NFL games on THURSDAYS have gone 5-1 O/U in the last 6 weeks. And: THURSDAY games have gone 6-0 O/U L2Y when BOTH teams are off a SU WIN (like CAR and PIT).