UNDER the TOTAL
Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
4:05om ET / 1:05pm PT
Our Totals Team confidently expects a LOW-scoring game out in the Bay Area this Sunday, as the Raiders host the Chargers in a late-afternoon kickoff. The OU line of 50-50.5 is about 3-4 points too high to begin with. This Oakland / Los Angeles series has had an avg OU line of 47.8 in the last four meetings. Avg combined points: just 36.0. Avg OU margin: -11.8 ppg. And ALL FOUR of those games went UNDER (0-4 O/U).
Whenever we see a ‘chalky’ ROAD team, we’re always gonna consider the Under FIRST. Especially in a DIVISION game... 23-56-2 O/U since 2009 / 3-20 O/U last 3 seasons: All Week 15 or less DIVISION games, in which the ROAD team is favored by -6 or more pts (Chargers are -10 to -11).
The host Raiders scored only 3 points last Thursday in their loss to the San Francisco 49ers... 2-14 O/U since 2006: All DIVISION home teams after scoring 3 or less points in their last game (Raiders), when the OU line is > 42 points.
The Chargers come in with a very good 6-2 record (.750), while the Raiders are having nightmare of a first half (1-7 SU / .125 winning percentage)... 2-17 O/U last 4 years: All .750 > ROAD teams (Chargers) versus any .250 < HOME team (Raiders), in GAME THREE or greater.
The Pace of Play could be relatively SLOW in this game. In the last 3 games, these are the SLOWEST two teams in the league (LAC: #32 in offensive plays per game at only 50.7 / OAK: #31 with only 53.0 plays per game).
Not only that, but both DEFENSES have been playing pretty well in the Red Zone. The Chargers AND Raiders are both ranked in the Top 11 in defensive Red Zone TD% this season.