Monday, Nov. 5th
7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT
#507-508
Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
The OU line in this one is moving DOWN, so get your play in as soon as possible. The Bulls @ Knicks game opened with a line of 216 points. As we type this at 11:30am ET, it has already goes down to the current number of 212.5 to 213 points. Sharp OU bettors already know that this has been a pretty low-scoring series as of late. In fact the last six meetings between the Bulls and Knicks IN New York have gone 1-5 O/U. The only game that DID go Over was because of OVERTIME. Even WITH that Overtime result (122-119 on Jan, 10, 2018)… the series has STILL averaged only 202.0 combined points per game.
Statistically, we have two of the weaker offensive teams in the league squaring off tonight. In what has been an incredible HIGH-SCORING start to the 2018 / 2019 NBA season, with of these teams still average less than 106 points per game. Chicago scored only 88 points in their Saturday home loss to the Houston Rockets. That game was their third STRAIGHT ‘Under’ in a row, and they have now gone 1-4 O/U in their last five overall. In addition, the Bulls are a perfect 0-6 O/U when playing off a loss in their last game… 2-7 O/U on Mondays… and 3-13 O/U in the last two seasons versus all < .400 Conference opponents (like the Knicks) when the OU linen is 203 > points.
On the flip side, New York scored only 95 points in their road loss to the Washington Wizards yesterday. Like their counterparts, their BEST ‘Under’ results have been when they are playing an equally POOR opponent like the Bulls (1-9 O/U last 10 vs < .400 opponents in Game 4 >).
Speaking of each team’s current W/L percentage (New York: 3-7 / Chicago: 2-8), this is a LOW-scoring pattern throughout the entire league that has been hot in the last 12+ months. Since the start of last season, NBA games featuring TWO Conference opponents with < .400 winning percentages (Bulls @ Knicks) have gone 8-32-1 O/U (80% Unders) in Game 10 > when the OU line is 203 or more points.
The NO REST situation for the host Knicks plays a big role in two different database queries…
(1) 8-24-1 O/U last 12 months: All MONDAY teams with NO REST (Knicks) when the OU line is < 217 points. These games have gone a PERFECT 0-11 O/U since January in EASTERN CONFERENCE play…
(2) 3-13 O/U last two seasons: All NBA non-division home teams with NO REST (Knicks) off a DOUBLE-DIGIT road loss that went Under the Total (yesterday vs the Wizards).
Chicago takes to the road of 3 straight home losses, but hey got the cash (as in ATS win) in all three of those games. In the history our database, NBA road teams off 2 or more SU home losses BUT 2 or more ATS wins have gone 1-8-1 O/U (Bulls).
Our database models have this game finishing right around 103 to 97. That’s about 12-13 points less than the current OU line.
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