Saturday, Nov. 3rd
10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
PAC 12 Conference
#383-384
USC TROJANS @ OREGON STATE BEAVERS
4**** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 60 or less points
The timing is PERFECT for a Pac 12 SHOOTOUT in this game that will be played up in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday night. Especially after the results of the last few weeks. The Beavers just pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season in the Pac 12 last week. They went into Boulder as a big dog of +24.5 points against a Top 25-ranked team in COLORADO. And they had their best offensive output of the season. Oregon State put up 41 points on 459 offensive yards and QB Jake Luton was on fire (28 for 39 for 310 yards). When OSU was storming down the field in the 2nd half, it seemed to spark the entire offense. the threat of a reliable and fast passing game makes things even more dangerous by opening up the field for RB Jemar Jefferson. This Beaver’s offense has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2018 Pac 12 season. For the most part, they have put a lot of points on the board… and sometimes, VERY quickly. OSU is now up to 30 ppg for the season, and they’ll be taking on a USC defense that has completely fallen apart as of late. And let’s not forget how BAD the Beaver’s defense has been. OSU is now ranked as the 2nd WORST defense in all of College Football. Our of 130 teams, NO ONE has allowed more points per game than Oregon State (45.6)… except Connecticut (47.7). In terms of yards, OSU has allowed 540.4… which is also 2nd worst in the country. Prior to last week's game against Colorado, the Beaver’s gave up 49 points (vs Cal)… 56 points (vs Wash St)…and 52 points (vs Ariz St). Dating back to the end of last season, the last 12 Beaver games have gone 10-2 O/U.
On the flip side, we have a USC team that’s finding its groove on offense as of late… but also finding a lot more HOLES on defense. Their frustrations culminated in a home favorite LOSS to Arizona State last week (38-35). A Sun Devil team that had previous been very ‘offensively-challenged’. Last week’s game had an OU line of 52.5 points, and it ended up going OVER by +20.5 points. Let’s not forget the butt-kicking result of the game before that either. Two weeks ago, USC traveled to Provo to take on the Utah Utes. They gave up a whopping 541 yards and 41 points. The OU line in that game was 48. Final score was 41-28. The OVER cashed by +21 points. USC is dealing with some major injuries on defense that have resulted in some BIG-TIME ‘Over’ margins. Yes, they did not play last week's game with starting QB JT Daniels. But he has passed all concussion protocols this week, and will be back at the held for this trip to the Pacific Northwest. That’s a good sign for the Trojans’ offense.., and even BETTER sign for our call on a shootout. Particularly against the 2nd worst defense in all of college football. So it’s no surprise that USC is on a current 12-5 O/U run in their last 17 games dating back to last season. And their BEST ‘Over' numbers always come when they are off a SU or ATS loss in their last game. Now that they are in a bit of as tailspin, we cannot help but notice that head coach Todd Helton (who is definitely on the HOT seat) fired his offensive line coach… and took over play-calling duties this past Monday.
Based on the current point spread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is: USC 38.5 - Oregon State 22.5.
Our database-crunching models and simulations point to a much HIGHER scoring game:
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS 41
OREGON STATE BEAVERS 31
That’s about 11-12 points higher than the current OU line. Any line that is > 10 points higher or lower than our forecast triggers a 3*** BEST BET for our service.