Sunday, Nov. 4th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#453-454
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
PLAY on: UNDER the TOTAL
Fresh off an easy Monday Night winner on UNDER the Total in the Pats / Bills game, we will be on the exact SAME situation for the 3rd week in a row. It worked in each of the last two weeks. It should work again in Week Nine: Going LOW with the biggest road ‘chalk’ team on the board. It’s by far the STRONGEST ‘Under’ situation that we’ve ever discovered out of our database.
When a team is laying MORE than a TD on the road (Chiefs are -8 to -8.5), , we always bet on the UNDER... 7-40-1 O/U since 2011 (85% Unders): All NFL road favorites of > 7 points (Chiefs), when the OU line is greater than (>) 41 points. These games have gone 5-36-1 O/U in Week 15 or less... including an almost-PERFECT 1-19 O/U in the last 4 years.
The mighty Chiefs are now 7-1 on the season (.875 winning %), while the lowly Browns are now 2-5-1 (.286 winning %)... 5-21-1 O/U last 5 years: All GAME SIX or greater .800 > teams (Kansas City) versus any .300 < opponent (Cleveland).
We’re certainly aware that the Chiefs are #1 in the league in scoring this season (36.2 ppg), and have scored 40, 45, and 30 in their last three games. With that said, the DATABASE tells us that: In the last 12 months, CONFERENCE teams who scored 30 > pts in EACH of their last three games (Chiefs) have gone 1-12 O/U in their next game.
Kansas City is off a division home win while Cleveland is off a division road loss... 2-14 O/U since 2011: All non-division CONFERENCE home teams off a division ROAD loss (Browns) vs any opponent off a division HOME win (Chiefs).
Make sure to grab a decent line of 51.5 or more in this one.