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2018-11-04T18:00:00.000Z 2018-11-04T18:00:00.000Z - NFL

453 Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
454 Cleveland Browns

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

11/04/2018

NFL Totals

UN KC/CLE

21-37

52

Free

L

Free

Analysis
Sunday, Nov. 4th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#453-454
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
PLAY on: UNDER the TOTAL

Fresh off an easy Monday Night winner on UNDER the Total in the Pats / Bills game, we will be on the exact SAME situation for the 3rd week in a row. It worked in each of the last two weeks. It should work again in Week Nine: Going LOW with the biggest road ‘chalk’ team on the board. It’s by far the STRONGEST ‘Under’ situation that we’ve ever discovered out of our database. 

When a team is laying MORE than a TD on the road (Chiefs are -8 to -8.5), , we always bet on the UNDER... 7-40-1 O/U since 2011 (85% Unders): All NFL road favorites of > 7 points (Chiefs), when the OU line is greater than (>) 41 points. These games have gone 5-36-1 O/U in Week 15 or less... including an almost-PERFECT 1-19 O/U in the last 4 years. 

The mighty Chiefs are now 7-1 on the season (.875 winning %), while the lowly Browns are now 2-5-1 (.286 winning %)... 5-21-1 O/U last 5 years: All GAME SIX or greater .800 > teams (Kansas City) versus any .300 < opponent (Cleveland). 

We’re certainly aware that the Chiefs are #1 in the league in scoring this season (36.2 ppg), and have scored 40, 45, and 30 in their last three games. With that said, the DATABASE tells us that: In the last 12 months, CONFERENCE teams who scored 30 > pts in EACH of their last three games (Chiefs) have gone 1-12 O/U in their next game. 

Kansas City is off a division home win while Cleveland is off a division road loss... 2-14 O/U since 2011: All non-division CONFERENCE home teams off a division ROAD loss (Browns) vs any opponent off a division HOME win (Chiefs). 

Make sure to grab a decent line of 51.5 or more in this one. 
Pick Creation Time:
11/02/2018 11:20 AM
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