Monday, Oct. 29th
8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line: 45.0 or more
This play is quite simple. It comes form one of our absolute FAVORITE low-scoring situations our of the NFL database. And it’s ALL about the fact that New England is laying an outrageous 14 or more points on the ROAD this evening. Last week, we went LOW in the exact same situation when the RAMS were laying a shitload of points on the road against division rival San Francisco. We cashed a winner in the Totals Tipsheet on the UNDER in that one. So we’ll Go There once again this evening. And ‘Going There’ means: Going LOW when the road team is extremely ‘chalky’. In this case, that means UNDER in the Monday Nighter between the PATRIOTS and BILLS. At last look, New England was laying -13.5 to -14 pts in this game. The last time a team was favored by 13.5 or more points on the road was SIX long seasons ago (New Eng was -13.5 vs J’Ville / Game went UNDER by 12.5 points).
NFL road favorites of -8 or MORE points (Pats) have gone 6-34 O/U (75% Unders) since 2012. And that includes an AMAZING 1-18 O/U in the last 4 seasons.
Even on THIS particular Day of the Week: MONDAY night DIVISIONAL games, with the ROAD team favored by -3 or more points (Pats @ Bills) have gone 1-10-1 O/U since 2011.
In their last four games, Buffalo has scored ZERO... 13 pts... 13 pts... and 5 pts… NFL home teams who scored 13 < pts in back-to-back ROAD games (Bills) have gone 2-12 O/U s’2011 when the OU line is > 41 points.
The score of Buffalo’s road loss to the Indy Colts last week was 47 to 5… In the last two seasons, NFL teams off a SU loss if 28 < points that also went UNDER the Total (Buffalo) have gone 1-8-1 O/U.
On the flip side, we are well aware that New England’s offense is in typical October TOP-NOTCH form, with 38, 38, 43, and 38 points scored in their last four games. That’s ok by us. In the history of our database, NFL teams who scored 35+ points in EACH of their last FOUR games (Patriots) have gone 1-7 O/U when the OU line is < 52 points.
The Pats are 5-2 on the year (.714), while the Bills are 2-5 (.286)... 2-14 O/U last 4 years: All GAME 13 < road teams with a > .700 winning percentage (Patriots) vs any < .300 opponent (Bills).
While it’s true that the Patriots are involved in a lot of HIGH-scoring games against good opponents, they are actually a VERY reliable UNDER team when playing against shitty foes. NEW ENGLAND has gone 75% UNDER the Total (4-12 O/U) in the last three years vs ALL sub-.500 opponents in Game Three or greater.
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