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2018-10-26T00:20:00.000Z 2018-10-26T00:20:00.000Z - NFL

103 Miami Dolphins
vs.
104 Houston Texans

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/25/2018

NFL Totals

UN MIA/HOU

42-23

44½

2

L

-220

Analysis

Thursday, Oct. 25th
8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT
#103-104
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 44 or more points

The Thursday night game features not one, but TWO pretty inept offenses in the Lone Star State. If you have a hankering to make a play in this game, it’s UNDER… or ‘PASS’. If this one was down here in South Florida, we might tempted to go the other way… given Miami’s current record of 4-0 O/U in their HOME games. But this one is on the road for the Fish, and sharp OU betters are already aware that Miami has gone a perfect 0-3 O/U run their ROAD games this season (vs the Jets, Patriots, and Bengals)… and by an average margin of -6.7 points per game. Dating back to last season, Miami has gone 1-8 O/U in their last nine road games when the OU line is 39 or more points. Not only that, but Miami is one of the best UNDER teams on Thursdays… having gone 1-8-1 O/U on this particular Day of the Week. They’ve also gone 0-5-1 O/U in their last six games vs > .500 conference opponents. For the host TEXANS, we note that they are active in current LOW-scoring situations like: 0-3 O/U after playing the Jaguars… 0-3 O/U in Game Eight… 0-2 O/U in their last two THURSDAY games… 1-5 O/U as home favs after allowing 7 < points in their pervious game… and 1-4 O/U in their last five vs the AFC East Division. We’re encouraged by the fact that Houston has scored TWO or more offensive TD’s in only ONE game this entire season.

Houston’s defense is playing as well as just about any team in the league right now. They allowed only 7 points last week… 13 points two weeks ago… and 13 points three weeks ago… 0-6 O/U last six years: All NFL home favorites of -7 > points after allowing 16 or less points in EACH of their last three games (Houston), when the OU line is 47 or less points.

We’re aware that Miami just got torched vs the Lions last week, allowing 32 points. But the database tells us that: In the last 5 years, NFL home teams who allowed 7 < pts on the ROAD the previous week (Texans), have gone a PERFECT 0-9 O/U versus any opponent who allowed 31 or more points in THEIR last game (Dolphins).

Houston went in to Jacksonville last week, and not only won the game OUTRIGHT as an underdog… but by 13 points to boot (final score was 20-7)… In the last 12 months, NFL teams off a SU road dog WIN of 13 < points (Texans) have gone a perfect 0-8 O/U in their next game when the OU line is 50 or less points.

We’re also well aware that Miami has allowed 32, 28, and 27 point in their last three games. The database says to expect a LOW-scoring outcome in the next game... 8-24 O/U since 2013: ALL NFL teams who allowed 27 or more points in EACH of their last three games (Dolphins). These teams have gone 4-16 O/U as underdogs of 3 or more points… including 1-9 O/U in NON-division play (Miami).

So Miami just played two NON-CONFERENCE games in a row that BOTH went OVER the Total (vs Detroit and Chicago)… In the last six years, AFC teams who went OVER in back-to-back games versus NFC opponents (Miami) have got a perfect 0-6 O/U in non-division play.
Pick Creation Time:
10/24/2018 3:14 PM
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