1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#455-456
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
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GAME ONE takes us to the Sunshine State for a non-conference battle between two of the weakest defenses in the entire league. That would be the CLEVELAND BROWNS (#28 in D / 406.5 YPG allowed) against the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (#31 in D / 439.6 YPG allowed). In terms of SCORING defenses, then two teams have combined to allow 59.8 points per game on the year as well. And we should see a lot of AIR YARDS as well, as Tampa is DEAD LAST in passing defense (355.6 ypg allowed) while Cleveland is #21 (268.3 ypg allowed). this will be the first game in over two years that we will be riding a Browns’ OVER. At least we know that the ROAD is the best place for high-scoring Cleveland results. They have gone 12-3 O/U in the last three seasons on the EROAD when the OU line is greater than 39 points. For the host Buccaneers, they are the ONLY team in the league this season that has gone Over the Total in EVERY single game. And by a HEFTY margin of +11.8 points per game.
Both teams are off SU and ATS losses in their last game, and both of those losses were pretty high-scoring to boot. So after inputing those results into our query, the database tells us that (A): Already THIS season, NFL games n which BIOTH teams are off a SUATS loss in their last game (BUCS + BROWNS) have gone 8-1 O/U. But that’s nothing. Check out our ‘tightener’ (B): These games have gone a PERFECT 13-0 O/U in the last four years when the HOST is favored by < 14 points (TAMPA)… and BOTH teams went OVER the Total in their last game.
Tampa has allowed 34 points, 40 points, and 30 points in each of their last three games… In the last four seasons, NFL home teams who allowed 30 > points in EACH of their last three games (BUCS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U.
Cleveland has also allowed a LOT of points as of late. Last week, it was 38 points at home cvs the Los Angeles Chargers… 20-8-1 O/U since 2011: All non-division home favorites when BITH teams (BUCS / BROWNS) just allowed 34+ points in their last game.
In Tampa’s last game (division affair vs Atlanta), the OU line was VERY high (57.5 points), and the game still went Over the Total… 20-7-1 O/U since 1999 / 13-2 O/U since 2012: All NFL teams with an OU line of 44 > points off a road ‘OVER’ when the line in that last game was 54 or more points (BUCS).
Both of these teams are currently UNDER .500 for the season… 17-5-1 O/U last 4 years / 7-1 O/U last 2 years: All WEEK 6 the 11 non-division games… when both teams are sub-.500 on the season (BROWNS @ BUCS)… and the OU line is 41 or more points. The just-concluded Thursday game between the Broncos and Cardinals was also in this situation, and that one ALSO went Over the Total.
This is an ideal week for a HIGH-scoring outcome in NFC vs AFC games… 14-3-1 O/U since 2015 / 9-1 O/U last 3 years: All GAME EIGHT or less NFC home favorites of -56 or less points (TAMPA) versus any AFC opponent (CLEVELAND).
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