Thursday, Oct. 18th
8:05pm ET / 5:05pm PT
Game Five of ALCS
BOSTON RED SOX w/ Price @ HOUSTON ASTROS w/ Verlander
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Off last night’s slugfest, in which we cashed the winner on the OVER (8.5 runs) when the game score was 4-4 in the 5th inning… we are coming right back with the OVER in Game Five. And with good reason. First off, EACH of the first four games of this ALCS have gone OVER the Total (4-0 O/U - 11.2 combined runs per game)…. Both teams are hitting the ball hard as of late (HOU: 6-1 O/U in the Playoffs / BOS: 6-2 O/U)… Both of tonight’s starting pitchers have already had one ‘go-round’ in this series already (and NEITHER looked sharp in that Game Two matchup)… and finally, we have the ideal MAN IN BLUE in place tonight for another high-scoring outcome.
In last night’s Game Four, we rode Mark Carlson to an ‘Over-EASY’ outcome. His YTD Record was 19-10-1 O/U… and he followed his full-season form perfectly. One might think that finding an Umpire with an even BETTER’ Over’ record would be pretty hard in this series. But here we are. Behind the dish for tonight’s Game Five will be CHRIS GUCCIONE. And his year-to-date numbers couldn’t be any better for OVER bettors. Amongst all Major League Baseball Umpire who have worked 15 or more games this season, Guccione is NUMBER ONE in the entire league… with a record off 19-8-2 O/U in the 2-18 season. That 70.4% OVER percentage is even better than Carlson’s 65.5%. So with Guccione at the TOP of the ‘Over’ list, we also note that his runs per game is also high at 10.8 for the year. He’s worked 11 games in the American League this season, and the results of those games has been 7-3-1 O/U (70% Overs). In fact he worked a Price versus Verlander game back on June 2nd. And yes, that game went OVER the Total.
The Lefty vs Righty pitching matchup plays right into our hands. Houston has hit better vs LEFTIES (5.4 runs per game TY) than righties (4.9 rpg). That includes 6.8 runs per game in their last five games ve lefties. Boston has hit better vs RIGHTIES (5.8 runs per game TY) than lefties (4.9 rpg). That includes 6.5 runs per game in their last five games ve rifghties.
Most of each team’s current TEAM trends are the same as yesterdays… except we add one more OVER to ‘em… Like the Boston vs Houston SERIES has now gone 37-14-1 O/U in the last 3+ seasons.
HOUSTON: 15-2-1 O/U last 18 vs > .600 opponents… 6-1-1 O/U last 8 home games… 3-0-1 O/U last four vs LEFTIES…
BOSTON: Now 15-3-1 O/U last 19 games overall… 21-8-1 O/U vs > .500 opponents… 12-2-1 O/U last 15 vs righties… 5-0-2 O/U last 7 LCS games… 5-1 O/U last 6 road games.
Lefty David Price got blasted by Houston in his last start (4.2 innings / 4 earned runs in Game Two). His ERA in his last three starts: 7.94. He’s allowed an ALARMING amount of Gopher Balls (8 home runs allowed in last four starts)… Sharp bettors are well aware of his difficulties in post-season play (0-9 in 11 career Playoff starts)… In four starts vs the ‘Strs over the last two seasons, Price’s ERA is 5.14. In fact, EACH of his last SIX starts vs Houston have gone OVER the Total (6-0 O/U). Righty Justin Verlander pitched in Game One of this ALCS… and in Game One off the previous series vs Cleveland. Both games went OVER… and by the same final scores (7-2). Verlander is now on a 4-1 O/U run in his last five starts. In his last four starts vs the Red Sox, ALL FOUR of ‘em went OVER the TOTAL (4-0 O/U). He’s gone 75% OVER the Total this season off a Quality Start in his last game.