Sunday, Oct. 14th
8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT
#275-276
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
The bar has been set extremely HIGH this week for the Sunday Night game featuring the CHIEFS and PATRIOTS (OU line of 59-59.5 as we type this on Wednesday). And for GOOD reason. The Chiefs are ranked #2 in the league in offensive scoring (35.0 ppg)… #5 in total offense (413 ypg)… and are ranked DEAD LAST in overall defense (allowing 461.8 ypg). Heck, they just allowed 502 yards to a JAGUARS dysfunctional offensive team last week. And on the flip side, New England’s offense finally has ALL their pieces in place (with Edelman returning from suspension last week). So after averaging only 19 ppg in their first three games, its pretty significant that the Patriots just scored 38 points in EACH of their last two games (438 yards and 449 yards).
Let’s be honest. Pretty much EVERYONE will be playing the OVER in this game. The squares… the sharps… even Al Michaels and the gang at NBC TV as well. But at the very least, we have done the database-querying that give you the reasons WHY this game will go OVER the Total. Obviously, based on each team’s recent performances… we can get you to 57 or 58 points. AS we stated, KC has averaged 35 ppg on the season. If they can score 30 or more points against the clear-cut BEST defense in the league (Jaguars), then they should, have NO problem getting to 27 or more points in this game. And with all hands on deck on offense for the host Patriots, the MINIMUM points that they should score should be at least 31. The fact that those game is IN New England rather than IN Kansas City plays a big part. If the site were reversed, we would definitely PASS on the Total. In fact we might actually go the other way (UNDER) if it was in KC. That’s because theChiefs are one of the best home UNDER team in the league over the last five years. And the Patriots have skewed HEAVILY toward the UNDER as of late when playing on the road (5-14 O/U last 19 road games). But the game is in New England. So we’ll ride individual TEAM numbers like these: KANSAS CITY is own a current 16-7 O/U run in their last 23 CONFERENCE road games (vs AFC opponents). And in the last four years, that includes a PERFECT 8-0 O/U when priced as road UNDERDOGS (or ‘pick em). Meanwhile, the PATRIOTS have gone 22-12 O/U since 2012 at HOME versus all non-division opponents since the 2012 season, including 12-2 O/U when the pointspread in the game is 6 or less points. Their BEST ‘Over’ results: 9-0 O/U since 2010 at home vs all .600 or better CONFERENCE opponents (like the CHIEFS) in GAME FIVE or greater.
Obviously, the first query that any sharp handicapper or bettor should make out of his/her database should focus on the extremely HIGH Over / Under line. And that’s where we are starting. I wrote about this in the most recent issue of the Playbook Totals Tipsheet newsletter. So let’s run a query for HIGH OU lines: Since late in the 2000 season, ALL NFL Games with a HIGH Over / Under line of 58 or more points have gone a PERFECT 7-0-1 O/U (CHIEFS @ PATRIOTS). Average combined points scored: 66.6. So our database is telling us that the high OU line has been justified with NO games going Under the Total in the last 18+ seasons.
This is New England’s 3rd STRAIGHT home game in row. In there first two home games (vs Miami and Indy), they scored 38 and 38 points… 12-4 O/U since 2003: NFL teams in their THIRD straight home game after scoring 28 > points in the first two games (PATRIOTS). In non-division play, these teams have gone a PERFEC 6-0 O/U in the last four years.
Last week, New England was a big double-digit home favorite (-10.5) vs the Colts, and brought home the bacon… 10-1 O/U since 1997: All NFL ‘short’ home favorites of < 5 points (PATRIOTS) off aSU and ATS home win in game in which they were a FAV of > 10 points.
The fact that New England is well rested off a THURSDAY game plays a big part in us pulling the trigger on the OVER. In that Thursday non-division game, the Patriots went OVER vs the Indianapolis Colts… 26-5-1 O/U since 2010: All NFL non-division teams off a a THURSDAY non-division game that also went Over the Total (PATRIOTS). This teams have gone a PERFECT 13-0 O/U if they also WON that last Thursday game (like the PATS).
Kansas City is one off only TWO teams in the league that have yet to lose a game (5-0 SU along with the LA Rams)… GAME FOUR or greater UNDEFEATED non-division UNDERDOGS of +2 or more points (CHIEFS) have gone 8-1 O/U since the 2011 season.
So each of these AFC powerhouse teams are off a big HOMEM win of 14 or more points. The Chiefs just beat the Jags 30-14… and the Patriots just beat the Colts 38-24… 10-1 O/U since 2010: All NFL games in which BOTH teams (CHIEFS and PATRIOTS) are off a SU home win of 14 or more points.
Both teams are .600 or better on the season… and are in prime and confident positions with 2 or more wins in row behind them… 9-1 O/U since 1982: All GAME EIGHT or less non-division home favorites, when BOTH teams are .600 or better on the season, and BOTH are off 2 or more wins in a row (PATRIOTS and CHIEFS)… when the OU line is greater than (>) 47 points.
The last time we played a Chiefs OVER was way back in Week Two, when they were on the road versus a non-division AFC opponent in the Pittsburgh Steelers (just like THIS week). I hope you didn’t get burned (or seduced) by playing KC ‘Overs' in their last two weeks (vs Denver and Jacksonville). Because both of those games went Under the Total. But the database is telling us that the time is RIGHT to get back on the OVER… 26-7-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME EIGHT or less road underdogs of > 1 point off back-to-back UNDERS in a row (CHIEFS).