4:05pm ET / 1:05pm PT
#269-270
2** Play on: DENVER BRONCOS plus the points vs Los Angeles Rams
The traveling Rams are one of only two undefeated teams left in the league after five weeks of play. And according to our Pro Football database, this is the IDEAL week to ‘fade em’. We certainly acknowledge the fact that LA is ranked number one in offense on the season with an average of 468 yard per game. And not only that, but yet have scored 33 or more points in EVER game. But we entered most of those pertinent numbers in our querying, and the database is telling us to go the OTHER way. First off, it’s reassuring to us that Denver has been one of the best home UNDERDOGS in all of Pro Football. The BRONCOS have gone 18-6-1 ATS All-Time in our database as non-division home UNDERDOGS versus ANY team in the league EXCEPT the New England Patriots. That includes 7-1 ATS since 2011… and a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four seasons.
With the Rams a perfect 5-0 SU so far in 2018, we note that: NFL Game Five or better UNDEFEATED road favorites of > 2 points (Rams) have gone 1-10 ATS in the last four years.
And with the Ram’s scoring 33 or more points in each of their first five games: NFL favorites of < 10 points who scored 33 > points in EAHC of their last four games (Rams) have gone 2-10-2 ATS in the last ten years… including a perfect 0-5-1 ATS in NON-division play.
There’s a little bid of a ‘hangover’ for NFL West Division teams after playing a road game versus the Seattle Seahawks (like the Rams did last week)… 0-6 ATS since 2013: All NFC WEST teams AFTER a road game vs Seattle (Rams), versus any non-division opponent (BRONCOS).
With the Rams on a multiple game winning streak, and the Broncos on a multiple game losing streak, our database tells us that: Home DOGS off 3 or more losses in a row (DENVER) have gone 18-6-1 ATS versus any opponent off 2 or more wins in a row (Los Angeles).
You may not believe it, but Denver has the significantly better RUSHING game in this one. The Broncos are averaging 5.6 yards per rush on the year while the Rams are at 4.6 yards per rush on offense. So we we input both stats into our database, we get: 12-2 ATS since 1997: All Game Four or greater UNDERDOGS who average 5.5 > YPR on the year (BRONCOS) vs any opponent who averages 4.6 < YPR on the year (Rams) and is playing off an ATS loss in their last game.
Next up for the Broncos is a THURSDAY game against the Arizona Cardinals… 7-1 ATS last 2 years: All NFL underdogs of > 5 points BEFORE playing a THURSDAY game (DENVER).
We are certainly aware that Denver just got their asses kicked on the road against the NY Jets last week. Final score was 34 to 16. Don’t let that ugly loss take you off this game. Because, in the last three years… NFL home teams off a ROAD loss of 17 > pts (BRONCOS) have gone a VERY profitable 16-2 ATS versus any 400 > opponent (Rams).
The Mile High City is not the BEST place to play in after a team just played a road game the previous week… 1-7-1 ATS All-Time: All NFL teams on the road against the Denver Broncos (Rams) AFTER a SU division road FAV win in their last game.