4:25PM ET / 1:25PM PT#271-272
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
OVER THE TOTAL (39.5 TO 40 PTS)
Two run-of-the mill offenses that are ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in scoring (Dal 16.6 ppg / Jac 20.4 ppg)... Two TOP TEN scoring defenses (Dal 19.2 ppg alllowed / Jac 17.2 ppg)... Two teams off UNDER results last week. So who in their RIGHT mind would consider going OVER the Total in this non-conference game? We would. At least we know that the ‘squares’ won’t be joining us!
At last look, the road Jaguars were installed as early road chalk in this game... In WEEK SIX, AFC road favorites (JAC) have gone a PERFECT 12-0 in the last 6 years vs any NFC opponent (DAL), when the OU line is 51 or less points.
Let’s eliminate the Game # from this query, and instead add in the LOW OU line (opened at 41.5 / now down to 39.5-40)... Since the start of LAST season, GAME 11 or less AFC vs NFC games with a low OU line of 42 or less points (JAC @ DAL) have gone 13-2 O/U, when the pointspread is 13 < points.
These two teams have played each other four times since the new millennium, and ALL FOUR of those DALLAS / JACKSONVILLE games went OVER the Total (4-0 O/U).
Jacksonville makes a significant ‘role reversal’ change in this game. In a 2-week span, they go from road DOGS (last week vs KC) to road FAVS (this week vs Dal)...12-1 O/U since 2013 / 7-0 O/U last 3 years: All non-division road FAVORITES of < 10 pts (JAGUARS) off a SUATS road DOG loss... when the OU line is 50 or less points.
The host Cowboys are off a low-scoring road loss (19 to 16) to in-state rival Houston last Sunday Night... 13-3 O/U since 2010 / 6-0 O/U last 3 years: All GAME NINE or less non-division UNDERDOGS off a SU road loss in which they scored AND allowed < 20 points (COWBOYS).
With both teams off low-scoring results, we close with this: WEEK 14 or less NON-DIVISION games have gone 14-2 O/U since 2010 when BOTH teams (JAGUARS and COWBOYS) scored < 17 points the previous week.
Monitor the OU line movement during the week, and let the squares bet this one down. Then, make your move on the OVER at a line of 39.5 or less points. We’ll call this one our ‘Fortune Favors the Bold’ game (FORTIS FORTUNA ADIUVAT!)...