Saturday, Oct. 6th
10:30pm ET / 7:30pm PT
#411-412
COLORADO STATE RAMS @ SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
We are going DEEP into the later Saturday Night games for our OVER of the Week. A 10:30pm ET kickoff way out in the West Coast.
What do you get when you have: (A) Two big time PASS-HEAVY offenses… combined with (B) Two of the WORST defenses in all of College Football… combined with (C) A low pointspread that is close to ‘pick em (meaning a back-and-forth, late score outcome is likely (along with potential OVERTIME)… along with (D) a team off a Bye that has had almost two weeks to ‘STEW’ after losing to a FCS opponent… along with (E) a high-scoring series history? You get a 3*** BEST BET ‘Over-EASY’ outcome in the Mountain West Conference game between the Colorado State Rams and the San Jose State Spartans.
We already know what are getting in the host Spartans. A team that has had a consistently BAD defense for five seasons in a row now. In the 2015 thru 2017 seasons, San Jose State’s defense went from allowing 29 points per game (2015)… to 36 points per game (2016)… to 42 points per game (last year). Fast forward to this season, and the Spartans have allowed 31 or more points in ALL FOUR of their games (an average of 38.5 ppg allowed). They are already ranked #124 in the country in overall defense this year, allowing 512 yards per game. And a very HIGH percentage of those yards have come via the AIR. They’ve allowed 379 passing yards per game (#120 out of 130). The only team that’s allowing more passing YPG this season is the Ohio University Bobcats. On offense, the Spartans are playing well enough to score their fair share of points for this game to fly OVER. They’re putting up over 25 points per game. And even more importantly, MOST of their offensive yards are ALSO through the air. In fact, 84% of ALL their offensive yards have come from the pass (295.7 passing YPG / 350.2 total YPG). They may not have won a game yet. But they pushed Oregon (covered easily as a 40-point underdog), and just came out of a 44-41 firefight with the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (Spartan QB Josh Love just threw for 451 yards). They’ve scored 79 points in their two home games so far this season.
On the flip side, we have ANOTHER dysfunctional defensive team in the visiting Coloardo State Rams. And the good news for us OVER bettors is that the Rams’ offense has had their moments already, as well. But first off, let’s check out that D. At last look, the Rams were ranked right up there with their counterparts when it comes to poor defenses. Colorado State is ranked #121 in total defense n the season, allowing 505.8 yards per game. So this Mountain West Conference showdown is the ONLY game on the Week Sx schedule featuring not one, but TWO defenses allowing more than 500 YPG on the season. And if you thought San Jose State had a poor scoring Dm, then check out the Rams: They are one of only 11 teams in all of College Football that is allowing more than 39 points per game on the season. That puts them at #121 in scoring defense (out of 130 teams). Their D is so bad that they just allowed 35 points (and 538 yards!) to a FCS school two weeks ago (a loss to Illinois State). They have already allowed 43 points to Hawaii… 45 points to Colorado… and 48 points to a dysfunctional Florida offense. Speaking of offense, Colorado State is ALWAYS good for a 30-point PLUS game. 34 ppg in 2014… 30 ppg in 2015… 35 ppg in 2016… and 34 ppg (last year). And like their counterparts, a very HIGH percentage of their overall offensive yards have come thru the AIR (77%). The Ram’s BEST ‘Over’ numbers have been when they play LOUSY opponents. They have gone 20-5-2 O/U in their last 27 games versus losing (< .500) opponents.
Based on the current pointspread (Rams favored by a LOW -2.5 points), and the current OU line (59.5 to 60)… the predicted final score in this game is: Colorado State 31 - San Jose State 28.5. Our database models and simulations point to a much HIGHER final score:
COLORADO STATE RAMS 38
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS 34
That’s about 72 points… which is about 12 points higher than the current OU line. Any college game with a projected total that’s 10-13.5 points higher or lower than the current OU line triggers a 3*** BEST BET for our service.