Thursday, Oct. 4th
National League Division Series
Game One
8:35pm ET / 5:35pm PT
ATLANTA BRAVES @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Once again, we have a case in post-season play in which the ‘Man in Blue’ plays a BIG role in us pulling the trigger on an OU play. Yesterday, we went OVER in the Yankees/Athletics game. On Thursday, we’re expecting a lot MORE runs in Game One of the NLDS series between the BRAVES and DODGERS. A series that has gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/IU In the last four games play IN Los Angeles.
Yesterday, it was a solid OVER Umpire as we rode JIM WOLF. A guy who was ranked in the Top Three for the entire season in Baseball OVERS when it comes to the ‘Men in Blue’. On Thursday, we’re gonna ‘see’ the Jim Wolf play… and ‘RAISE’ you with ADRIAN JOHNSON. he will be the crew chief for this NLDS series, and will (naturally) be behind the dish for Game One. Yes, Wolf’s OVER numbers are solid. But Johnson is even BETTER. When we check out the list of ALL 89 guys who have umped at least one game this season, ADRIAN JOHNSON comes out as the BEST ‘Over’ Umpire of the entire bunch. His year-to-date record was 20-8-2 O/U in 30 games. That’s an OVER percentage of 71%. Average runs-per-game when Johnson was behind the dish this season was 10.4. That's some pretty solid VALUE when you consider the OU line for this Game One is just 7 runs. His numbers were even HIGHER in National League play this season. Johnson went 10-3-1 O/U in all ‘Senior Circuit’ games (77% Overs), with an average of 10.9 combined runs per game. He worked 2 Dodger games this year, and went 2-0 O/U…
The pitching matchup for Game One will be righty Mike Foltynewicz for the visiting Braves, and lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu for the host Dodgers. That ‘Righty vs Lefty’ matchup plays right into our hands. Atlanta averaged more than a half run per game HIGHER vs lefties this season (5.1 runs per game) compared to righties. And Los Angeles averaged almost a FULL run per game higher vs righties (5.2 rpg) than they did against southpaws (4.3 rpg). Foltynewicz does NOT come into this post-season start in very good form either. Here’s a guy who had a 2.85 ERA for the entire season. But he closed the year with a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts. In his only start vs LA this year, he got tagged for six hits and 4 runs in five innings pitched. On the flip side, we’ll acknowledge a nice season for lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. But we’ll be on him in favorable OVER situations like the fact that his last five home starts have gone 4-1 O/U. We love the fact that the Dodgers have gone 16-5-1 O/U in their last 22 home games versus WINNING (> .500) opponents… 16-6 O/U in their last 26 games vs the NL East Division… and a perfect 4-0 O/U in their last four PLAYOFF home games. The BRAVES have gone an impressive 13-3 O/U in their last 16 PLAYOFF games… including 8-1 O/U on the ROAD.