Sunday, Sept. 30th
#267-268
4:05pm ET / 1:05pm PT
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
We’re Going LOW in the late-afternoon game between the SEAHAWKS and CARDINALS on Sunday. And yes, we’re aware that the bar has already been set LOW by the oddsmakers (OU line is around 39 as we type this on Friday afternoon). Sharp bettors are aware that this will be a battle of poor offenses. Seattle is ranked #27 in the league with only 292.3 offensive yards per game. And Arizona comes in DEAD LAST (#32) with an average of only 190.3 offensive yards per game (and only 6.7 POINTS per game). This Seahawks / Cardinals SERIES has gone a perfect 0-3 O/U in the last three seasons when playing IN Arizona. Average total points: just 30.7… Average OU margin: -12.6 points per game.
With Seattle laying a Field Goal on the road in this division game, we’l be riding a solid UNDER situation: DIVISION road favorites of -3 or more points (Seahawks) have gone UNDER the Total 68% of the time in the last four seasons in GAME 14 or less…
That’s a pretty sold UNDER percentage, but our database querying can TOP it when we add in the fact that both teams are off back-to-back UNDERS in a row… 2-16 O/U since 2004 / 1-13 O/U since 2009 / 0-9 O/U since 2011: All DIVISION games in which the road teams is favored… when BOTH teams are off BB ‘Unders’ in a row (Seahawks @ Cardinals)… when the OU line is greater than (>) 37 points.
Arizona has scored only 6 pts, 0 pts, and 14 pts in their last three games… 3-11 O/U since 2014: All NFL HOME teams who scored 14 or LESS points in EACH of their last three games (Cardinals).
Arizona has been a very STREAKY team right out of the gate. But those streaks have been boring (3 straight Unders in row) and bad (3 straight losses in a row)… 1-8 O/U since 2005: All NFL home teams with an OU line of 40 or less points (Cardinals) off 3 straight LOSSES in a row that ALL went UNDER the Total.
Don’t forget about what I wrote about in this week’s Totals Tipsheet newsletter about WINLESS teams like the Cardinals in this particular Week of the Season… Since 2011, WINLESS home teams in their 4TH game of the season (Cardinals and Raiders) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U when the OU line is > 37 points and < 48 points..
SEAHAWKS: 2-10 O/U as road FAVORITES of 10 < points in the last three seasons… 5-16 O/U since 2014 versus all LOSING (< .500) opponents… including 1-11 O/U in Game 11 or less vs all NFC opponents.
CARDINALS: 3-11 O/U in last 14 CONFERENCE games over the last two seasons… 5-17 O/U in their last 22 HOME games, including 3-14 O/U when the OU lime is < 48 points.