Sunday, Sept. 30th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#255-256
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ ATLANTA FACLONS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Get your play in AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. There is a reason that we send out or post our weekly NFL Plays as early in the week that we can. To get the best O/U line VALUE. In fact, here is the email that I sent out to all seasonal King Creole clients on Monday morning of this week at 11:00am ET:
You may want to play this one as soon as possible: Our NFL Game of the Month next Sunday will be: OVER the TOTAL (48) in the CINCINNATI BENGALS vs ATLANTA FALCONS game. I got my wager in at 48…
As we speak (Wednesday afternoon), the OU line in this non-conference game has already RISEN to a HIGH 51 points. Those of us who bet it on Monday are ALREADY three points ‘ahead of the game’. Don’t feel too bad that you missed out on the number off 48. At the current line of 51 points, there’s still plenty of MEAT ON THE BONE. But if you delay in placing your wager any further, you RISK the fact that this line could very well go up to 52… or 53… or even 54 once we get to the 1:00pm ET kickoff on Sunday afternoon.
This one has SHOOTOUT written all ‘OVER’ it (pun intended). The Atlanta defense was exposed last week in their home game versus the Saints. There was 80 freakin’ points scored in it. QB Drew Brees and his Saints carved up the Atlanta defense for 534 yards (including 391 via the air). Low and behold, look who Atlanta has already lost for the SEASON on defense: Both starting safeties (Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen)… AND linebacker Deion Jones. This defense is literally in a ‘world of hurt’. And it looks like Atlanta will be involved in many shootouts moving forward this season. Perhaps they will return to their glory season (for OVER bettors) of 2016… when they went 16-2-1 O/U in their games (and a perfect 8-0 O/U at home / 62.7 combined points per game!). So Atlanta’s 27th ranked defense (401.7 you allowed / 28.3 ppg allowed) will be taking on Cincinnati’s 26th ranked defense. A Bengals team that has already seen 57 combined points… 57 combined points… and 52 combined points in their three games this season (3-0 O/U). We also know that both QBS (Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton) had tow of the Top Five performances last week. And Cincinnati’s offense has looked razor-sharp in the first 3 games of this season, and the last half of last season. Maybe we should say ‘LAZOR-sharp’. Because the Bengals have certainly been picking up what offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has been selling as of late. They are now on a crossover-season run of 67% OVER the Total in their last 15 games. So we basically have two of the best offenses in the league taking on two of the worst defenses in the league…
ATLANTA has gone 19-5 O/U since the 2006 season in Games 1-4 of the year at HOME… including 12-2 O/U since 2012.
CINCINNATI has gone 12-2 O/U since 2008 in Games 1-4 vs all NON-DIVISION opponents, including a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last four seasons.
From the database…
With Atlanta having scored 37 points at home last week, we note that: In the last four seasons, NFL home teams who scored 35 or more points at home in their LAST game (BENGALS) have gone 10-1 O/U when the pointspread is < 7 points.
With BOTH teams having allowed a ton of points last week (Atl allowed 43 / Cincy allowed 31), our database tells us that: NFL non-division home favorites have gone a PERFECT 7-0 O/U since 2013 when BOTH teams allowed 31 < points in their last game (FALCONS + BENGALS), when the OU line is 45 > points.
NFL teams that were in a division shootout that the LOST the previous week have been tremendous OVER plays… 16-2-1 O/U ALL-TIME in our database: All NFL non-division home favorites of < 13 points (FALCONS) off a SU division LOSS in which they scored AND allowed 35 > points.
This will be Atlanta’s third STRAIGHT home game in a row… 16-3-1 O/U ALL-TIME in our database: All non-division favorites of < 9 points in their third STRAIGHT home game (FALCONS). These games have gone 10-1 O/U when the OU Line is > 43 points.
As I wrote about in this week’s Playbook Totals Tipsheet, this has been a GREAT week for OVERS when the OU line is on the HIGH side. That high line is certainly JUSTIFIED… 7-0 O/U since 2012: All GAME FOURS (for BOTH teams), when the OU line is GREATER Than (>) 49 points (BENGALS @ FALCONS).
This is also the IDEAL time to consider the OVER in non-conference games (NFC vs AFC)… depending on who the host is, and what the pointspread is… 10-1 O/U since 2010: All GAME FOUR NFC home favorites (ATLANTA) versus any AFC opponent (CINCINNATI).