#187-188
7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
CONFERENCE USA
Charlotte 49ers @ UAB Blazers
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*Optimum OU Line: 54 or more
This is another game in which we are in agreement with the current line move. This game between the Niners and Blazers opened at 57 points. As we type this on Friday afternoon, it has come all the way down to 53.5-54. That still gives us about 6-7 points in value. The Charlotte 49ers suffered a high-scoring loss to UMass last week (49-31), but the numbers were very misleading. They out-statted the Minutemen, and actually only allowed 331 total yards. In fact, Charlotte is the only team in Conference USA that’s held its opponents to < 100 rushing yards per game. That rushing game is UAB’s bread and butter (280.7 RYPG). So we have a ‘strength vs strength’ situation which should slow down the pace of this game. On the flip side, UAB has the nation’s 2nd BEST ranking when it comes to passing defense (they allow only 1232.3 passing YPG). That’s Charlotte strength on offense. So when we can take BOTH teams out of their respective comfort zones on offense, that adds up to an UNDER. Based on the spread and OU line, the predicted final score is: UAB 35 - Charlotte 18.5.
Our database models and simulations point to a lower-scoring outcome:
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM BLAZERS 31
CHARLOTTE 49ERS 15
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Additional opinions: La-Monroe/Georgia State UNDER… Kent St/Ball St UNDER… Pittsburgh/C Florida UNDER… Purdue/Nebraska OVER… Ohio St/Penn St OVER...