Sunday, Sept. 23rd
4:05pm ET / 1:05pm PT
#481-482
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Our King Creole service was on Ram ‘UNDERS’ in each of the the first two weeks of the season, and we were fortunate to cash winners in both games (vs the Raiders and vs the Cardinals). We won’t argue the fact that LA’s defense looks SCARY good. But let’s consider who they played in those two games. This week’s ‘Battle of LA’ will see the Rams facing their first VERY GOOD offense of the 2018 season. LA went Over the Total 70% of the time last season versus the Top 16 offenses in the league. The CHARGERS torched the Chiefs for 541 yards in Week One. They came back last week and pounded the Bills for 28 first-half points in racing out to a big lead. They then took their feet off the gas pedal in the 2nd half, which is what one would anticipate after getting out to a comfortable 28-3 lead. This week’s game could very well come right down to the wire. So we anticipate both offenses going hard for the full 60 minutes. This is the ONLY game on the Week Three schedule featuring not one but TWO offenses who are ranked in the Top Five in the league in offensive yards per point this season. Not only that, but both teams are averaging a combined 843.5 offensive yards per game. In regards to the OU tendencies of this SERIES… these two teams have gone 7-1 O/U in the last eight meetings versus each other. Average combined point per game: 56.7… Average OU MARGIN: +13.7 points per game.
This game jumped out at me when I was doing the research for this week’s issue of the PLAYBOOK Totals Tipsheet. Our first few database queries were in search of any OU patterns that apply to this particular Week of the Season (Game Three).
(1)17-4-1 O/U since 2007 / 6-0 O/U last 3 years: All GAME THREE undefeated home favorites (RAMS are 2-0 SU this year) of > 3 points.
(2) 53-22-1 O/U since 2007: All GAME THREE teams off back-to-back UNDERS in their first two games of the season (RAMS). These games have gone a perfect 8-0 O/U in the last four years for FAVORITES (RAMS) versus any opponent off an OVER in their last game (CHARGERS).
Being as both of these teams are from the Western Time Zone, I also ran a query for teams like the Chargers that just traveled all the way across the country in their last game (LA went OVER in that road trip gone vs Buffalo last week)… 12-2 O/U since 2011 / 8-1 O/U for UNDERDOGS: All WEST Time Zone road teams off a ‘West to East’ road OVER in their last game (CHARGERS).
We are certainly aware that the host Rams just pitched a shutout in their last game… (1) 6-0 O/U since 2012: All NFL favorites of > 4 and < 10 points off a home SHUTOUT win (RAMS)… (2) 5-0 O/U last 4 years: All home teams with an OU line of > 43 points after allowing > 7 points at home in their last game (RAMS).
So BOTH teams are off double-digit wins… in which they each scored 31 or more points… 13-3 O/U since 2012 / 8-1 O/U last 4 years: All NFL games in which BOTH teams are off DOUBLE-DOGIT wins in which they scored 31 < points (RAMS + CHARGERS). These games have gone a perfect 5-0 O/U when the OU line is 47 or more points.
Put these two particular DIVISIONS together, and you get: 8-1-1 O/U since 1994 for all NFC WEST Division home favorites of -5 > points (RAMS) versus a AFC WEST Division opponent (CHARGERS), when the OU line is > 41 points.
The absolute BEST time to consider a Chargers OVER has been: 29-10-1 OP/U for the SD/LA CHARGERS as larger road underdogs of +5 > points, when the OU line falls in the range of > 42 and < 56 points.
That falls PERFECTLY in place for our Ram’s best OVER trend… The STL/LA RAMS have gone an amazing 20-4 O/U over the last 15 seasons as non-division FAVORITES of > 3 points.
The OU line in this game opened at 48.5 points. The first initial move was DOWN a full point to 47.5. That’s the line that I BET it at (47.5). As we type this writeup on Wednesday night, there are signs that the line will start creeping back up as we get closer to the weekend. We strongly advise that you get your play in at 48 or LESS points if you can. Of course, we’ll stand by this play regardless of what the line is at the Sunday kickoff time of 4:05pm ET. But we can’t stress this strongly enough: The 'Early Bird gets the BEST Line Value'!