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2018-09-23T17:00:00.000Z 2018-09-23T17:00:00.000Z - NFL

479 San Francisco 49ers
vs.
480 Kansas City Chiefs

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

09/23/2018

NFL Sides

49ers

27-38

+7

2

L

-220

Analysis

2** SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS plus the points
vs
Kansas City Chiefs
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
#479-480

The Chiefs opened as a home fav of -4.5 points in this non-conference game. Since then, the line has crept steadily upward to where we are at right now (as we the this at 12:00noon ET on Saturday). And that’s with the line in the crucial range of -6.5 to -7 points. Obviously, the SHARP bettor is gonna (a) SHOP for the best line… and (b) POUNCE when he or she can find a solid +7 or more on the NINERS. We will stand by this play regardless of what the pointspread is at kickoff time. But if you are patient and diligent, we believe that all bettors will be able to find a line to their liking.

We LOVE betting on the Chiefs… but in the RIGHT situation. That situation is when they are an UNDERDOG. KC has gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 roles as a dog. They cashed (and in fact won OUTRIGHT) in each of their first two games of the 2018 season (as a road DOG vs the Chargers and a road DOG vs the Steelers). But this week, the role is reversed significantly. And they are now LAYING a hefty amount of points. In the last four seasons, KC has gone 1-8-1 ATS as sizable non-division favorites of > 4 points. Their defense is simply not good enough to warrant covering a spread of a TD or more. They have allowed an average of 508 yards per game on defense, and 32.5 points per game. The ‘back door’ is ALWAYS open for good offensive underdogs (like the NINERS) when facing a poor defense like this.

The first query that jumped out at me was actually when I was looking for a potential OVER / UNDER angle for this game. Didn’t find anything revealing in regards to the Total, but check out how POORLY home favorites gan faired when the OU line is REALLY high (like it is in this game): In the last four years, NFL home favorites of > 3 points (Chiefs) have gone an almost PERFECT 1-13 ATS when the OU line is 53 or more points (It’s 55-55.5 in this game).

The SQUARE bettor will be enamored with the Chiefs since they just WON two straight games as an UNDERDOG. Let’s hope those same squares drive the line up… so we can POUNCE… Since the 2007 season, NFL mid-to-large FAVORITES of > 4 points have gone a PERFECT 0-6 Its when playing off back-to-back UNDERDOG wins in a row (Chiefs).

You’ve probably heard some of the ‘Talking Heads’ mentioning THIS aspect of the game during the week. Kansas City started the season with two straight games on the road. That’s not a good thing for KC backers…  GAME THREE non-division HOME teams who started the year with back-to-back ROAD games (Chiefs) have gone 8-26-2 ATS since the 19988 season.

Since we mentioned that KC allowed a LOT of points in their first two wins, I decided to run a database query… Since 1993, NFL home favorites off BB SU wins in which they allowed 28 or more points EACH (Chiefs) have gone 19-1 ATS. 

The traveling Niners are NOT 2-0 SU like their counterparts. In fact, they have actually started the season with ATS losses in each of their first two games… GAME THREE road underdogs off BB ATS losses (NINERS) have gone a PERFECT 12-0 ATS since 005 versus any opponent off BB SU wins (Chiefs).
Pick Creation Time:
09/22/2018 8:51 AM
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